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Know every move your ennemy makes, and plan for the unexpected: That's what is
most likely to happen. In the meantime move yourself so as to stay one round
ahead...
In English, know your market, know your facts, but don't rely on the obvious
conclusions, trade your plan, and make sure you're not caught with the pants
down, ever.
Gwenn
Varouj Abrahamian a écrit:
> Qustion:
> Do you place any importance on the general talk on the street? Example: Low
> inflation, low interest rates and low un-employment rate or do you just
> look at silver based on cycles?
> Thank you
>
> ----------
> > From: Frwheldrv <Frwheldrv@xxxxxxx>
> > To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: Re: REALTRADERS digest 714
> > Date: Thursday, March 05, 1998 6:19 PM
> >
> > In a message dated 98-03-05 14:08:24 EST, fellars@xxxxxxx writes:
> >
> > <<
> > On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 13:28:57 EST, Frwheldrv wrote:
> >
> > >
> > >I posted that I had bought a may silver put on 2-17 looking for a
> bottom of
> > a
> > >39 week cycle due in may. I did not wait it out and took a 130% profit
> on
> > the
> > >38 % retracement completed on 2-25 @6057- I still am looking for lower
> > silver
> > >into may due to cycles and my 1%kagi chart is still bearish. I do not
> have a
> > >silver position at this time.
> >
> > Eric:
> >
> > Nice trade. I've thought a bit about what may happen in silver over the
> next
> > couple of months and what
> > is driving my ideas is the similarity of silver to what happened in gold
> a
> > couple of years ago. My next
> > time point of significance is in June which is exactly what it was like
> when
> > gold made its high a couple of
> > years ago. What happened then was the XAU held up in the top area until
> > early June without making a
> > new high and then they took out both the stocks and the metal and shot
> > 'em.<g>
> >
> > The analysis that I arrived at from a longer term perspective in silver
> > suggests that the 1980's bear
> > market is still the name of the game but this may be the last run for
> the
> > bears. One more new low
> > below $3.50 whenever it occurs ought to finish the structure. How long
> that
> > takes is open to question.
> > From a much longer perspective the only significant time point that I
> can see
> > in the precious metals is in
> > March, 2002. That particular point is probably a low if it is of
> > significance. I sure would hate to see the
> > metals continue to drift down for the next four years...
> >
> > > -there is a roughly 9.6 month cycle due for a high in july/aug
> >
> > Can you show me some more detail on the history of this cycle?
> >
> > RAF
> >
> > >>
> > RAF I had to look a few minutes to remember that I was speaking of the
> crude
> > outlook on the 9.6 mo. I pull charts off free internet sites and analyse
> by
> > hand so unfortunately I have nothing to attach. If you send me a fax # I
> will
> > Fax a monthly chart, but roughly crude has been following this cycle
> nicely
> > and if you put up a monthly chart starting at least as far back as 1994
> thru
> > 1998 you will see clear highs in June '94, April'95, Mar '96, Dec. '96
> and
> > Sept. 97 averaging roughly 9.6 mo.
> >
> > Happy cycle hunting
> >
> > Eric
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