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In a message dated 98-03-06 09:33:16 EST, VaroujYA@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< Qustion:
Do you place any importance on the general talk on the street? Example: Low
inflation, low interest rates and low un-employment rate or do you just
look at silver based on cycles?
Thank you
In the book 'Handbook of Commodity cycles' by Bernstein he suggests looking
at cycles in a news vacuum. In my experience I agree. It goes back to the
theory on Eliottt Waves also; do the waves reflect the news or are the waves
so integral to human existence that the news follows the waves. I agree with
the latter. We all know that for any market move there is a stack of theory to
support moves in either direction. You can see this here at realtraders. look
at the recent posts on Intel, plenty of opportunity for some to be right and
some to be wrong with Intel going up or down. Intel would not be a likely
candidate for cycles but with most commodtities they are and I ignore all
news.
Eric
----------
> From: Frwheldrv <Frwheldrv@xxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: REALTRADERS digest 714
> Date: Thursday, March 05, 1998 6:19 PM
>
> In a message dated 98-03-05 14:08:24 EST, fellars@xxxxxxx writes:
>
> <<
> On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 13:28:57 EST, Frwheldrv wrote:
>
> >
> >I posted that I had bought a may silver put on 2-17 looking for a
bottom of
> a
> >39 week cycle due in may. I did not wait it out and took a 130% profit
on
> the
> >38 % retracement completed on 2-25 @6057- I still am looking for lower
> silver
> >into may due to cycles and my 1%kagi chart is still bearish. I do not
have a
> >silver position at this time.
>
> Eric:
>
> Nice trade. I've thought a bit about what may happen in silver over the
next
> couple of months and what
> is driving my ideas is the similarity of silver to what happened in gold
a
> couple of years ago. My next
> time point of significance is in June which is exactly what it was like
when
> gold made its high a couple of
> years ago. What happened then was the XAU held up in the top area until
> early June without making a
> new high and then they took out both the stocks and the metal and shot
> 'em.<g>
>
> The analysis that I arrived at from a longer term perspective in silver
> suggests that the 1980's bear
> market is still the name of the game but this may be the last run for
the
> bears. One more new low
> below $3.50 whenever it occurs ought to finish the structure. How long
that
> takes is open to question.
> From a much longer perspective the only significant time point that I
can see
> in the precious metals is in
> March, 2002. That particular point is probably a low if it is of
> significance. I sure would hate to see the
> metals continue to drift down for the next four years...
>
> > -there is a roughly 9.6 month cycle due for a high in july/aug
>
> Can you show me some more detail on the history of this cycle?
>
> RAF
>
> >>
> RAF I had to look a few minutes to remember that I was speaking of the
crude
> outlook on the 9.6 mo. I pull charts off free internet sites and analyse
by
> hand so unfortunately I have nothing to attach. If you send me a fax # I
will
> Fax a monthly chart, but roughly crude has been following this cycle
nicely
> and if you put up a monthly chart starting at least as far back as 1994
thru
> 1998 you will see clear highs in June '94, April'95, Mar '96, Dec. '96
and
> Sept. 97 averaging roughly 9.6 mo.
>
> Happy cycle hunting
>
> Eric
>>
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