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Qustion:
Do you place any importance on the general talk on the street? Example: Low
inflation, low interest rates and low un-employment rate or do you just
look at silver based on cycles?
Thank you
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> From: Frwheldrv <Frwheldrv@xxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: REALTRADERS digest 714
> Date: Thursday, March 05, 1998 6:19 PM
>
> In a message dated 98-03-05 14:08:24 EST, fellars@xxxxxxx writes:
>
> <<
> On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 13:28:57 EST, Frwheldrv wrote:
>
> >
> >I posted that I had bought a may silver put on 2-17 looking for a
bottom of
> a
> >39 week cycle due in may. I did not wait it out and took a 130% profit
on
> the
> >38 % retracement completed on 2-25 @6057- I still am looking for lower
> silver
> >into may due to cycles and my 1%kagi chart is still bearish. I do not
have a
> >silver position at this time.
>
> Eric:
>
> Nice trade. I've thought a bit about what may happen in silver over the
next
> couple of months and what
> is driving my ideas is the similarity of silver to what happened in gold
a
> couple of years ago. My next
> time point of significance is in June which is exactly what it was like
when
> gold made its high a couple of
> years ago. What happened then was the XAU held up in the top area until
> early June without making a
> new high and then they took out both the stocks and the metal and shot
> 'em.<g>
>
> The analysis that I arrived at from a longer term perspective in silver
> suggests that the 1980's bear
> market is still the name of the game but this may be the last run for
the
> bears. One more new low
> below $3.50 whenever it occurs ought to finish the structure. How long
that
> takes is open to question.
> From a much longer perspective the only significant time point that I
can see
> in the precious metals is in
> March, 2002. That particular point is probably a low if it is of
> significance. I sure would hate to see the
> metals continue to drift down for the next four years...
>
> > -there is a roughly 9.6 month cycle due for a high in july/aug
>
> Can you show me some more detail on the history of this cycle?
>
> RAF
>
> >>
> RAF I had to look a few minutes to remember that I was speaking of the
crude
> outlook on the 9.6 mo. I pull charts off free internet sites and analyse
by
> hand so unfortunately I have nothing to attach. If you send me a fax # I
will
> Fax a monthly chart, but roughly crude has been following this cycle
nicely
> and if you put up a monthly chart starting at least as far back as 1994
thru
> 1998 you will see clear highs in June '94, April'95, Mar '96, Dec. '96
and
> Sept. 97 averaging roughly 9.6 mo.
>
> Happy cycle hunting
>
> Eric
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