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On Tue, 24 Feb 1998 16:05:50 PST, John Boggio wrote:
>As a matter of fact, why don't we make this market
>our "Market of the Week" here on Realtraders. I hope to hear other
>opinions on this interesting market.
John:
I'll give you a contrary opinion.
My work suggests that silver made an important peak in early February which is essentially
equivalent from a wave/time perspective to the peak gold made two years ago. There are several
similarities.
1) The peak occured exactly two years from the emotional peak in gold in February, 1996 and was
emotional in nature as the shorts panicked. One can assume since they are both precious metals
that there time points are also probably related. Two years is the length of the F15 interval in the
Spiral Calendar which, IMO, is the best method of measuring emotion over time in markets. F15
also has solar harmony.
2) The peak at $7.50 retraced *exactly* 38.2% (a fibonacci percentage) of the previous long term
down move from 1983 (secondary failure peak) to 1992. If this was a new bull market in silver that
particular retracement line would logically have no meaning and therefore no effect other than a
random number. The fact that the market stopped and retraced significantly at the number
suggests that the bear market in silver which started in 1980 is still in effect and that silver will
eventually retrace all the way back to and probably through the $3.50 per ounce low.
3) The move from the 1992 low was an a-b-c rally where wave b was complex and retraced a
fibonacci 66.7% of a. Wave c was also approximately 1.618 times the length of wave a. A rally
(or decline) which exhibits that relationship between two impulse waves is normally a corrective
sequence. Pure bull markets tend to ignore those types of relationships. This particular formation
with the same exact relationships led to the 1996 high in gold through its stock proxy, the XAU.
4) In 1996 when gold was running, silver was doing nothing. In 1998 silver is running and gold is
doing nothing. These markets ought to be moving together in a new bull market IMO.
I'm attaching the file silver2.gif to this message which shows the Elliott Wave count of the rally
from 1992 to present and graphically illustrates my point.
RAF
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SILVER2.gif"
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