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Maybe Warren Buffet should have consulted an EW expert.
Tproeber@xxxxxxxxxx
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Roy A. Fellars [SMTP:fellars@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, February 26, 1998 3:31 AM
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> Subject: Silver
>
> On Tue, 24 Feb 1998 16:05:50 PST, John Boggio wrote:
>
>
> >As a matter of fact, why don't we make this market
> >our "Market of the Week" here on Realtraders. I hope to hear other
> >opinions on this interesting market.
>
> John:
>
> I'll give you a contrary opinion.
>
> My work suggests that silver made an important peak in early February
> which is essentially
> equivalent from a wave/time perspective to the peak gold made two
> years ago. There are several
> similarities.
>
> 1) The peak occured exactly two years from the emotional peak in gold
> in February, 1996 and was
> emotional in nature as the shorts panicked. One can assume since they
> are both precious metals
> that there time points are also probably related. Two years is the
> length of the F15 interval in the
> Spiral Calendar which, IMO, is the best method of measuring emotion
> over time in markets. F15
> also has solar harmony.
>
> 2) The peak at $7.50 retraced *exactly* 38.2% (a fibonacci percentage)
> of the previous long term
> down move from 1983 (secondary failure peak) to 1992. If this was a
> new bull market in silver that
> particular retracement line would logically have no meaning and
> therefore no effect other than a
> random number. The fact that the market stopped and retraced
> significantly at the number
> suggests that the bear market in silver which started in 1980 is still
> in effect and that silver will
> eventually retrace all the way back to and probably through the $3.50
> per ounce low.
>
> 3) The move from the 1992 low was an a-b-c rally where wave b was
> complex and retraced a
> fibonacci 66.7% of a. Wave c was also approximately 1.618 times the
> length of wave a. A rally
> (or decline) which exhibits that relationship between two impulse
> waves is normally a corrective
> sequence. Pure bull markets tend to ignore those types of
> relationships. This particular formation
> with the same exact relationships led to the 1996 high in gold through
> its stock proxy, the XAU.
>
> 4) In 1996 when gold was running, silver was doing nothing. In 1998
> silver is running and gold is
> doing nothing. These markets ought to be moving together in a new
> bull market IMO.
>
> I'm attaching the file silver2.gif to this message which shows the
> Elliott Wave count of the rally
> from 1992 to present and graphically illustrates my point.
>
> RAF << File: SILVER2.gif >>
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