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On Sun, 22 Feb 1998 16:04:23 PST, Earl Adamy wrote:
> I'm wondering if the unusual price pattern is telling us that supply/demand
>are closely balanced and that rather than seeing an intermediate top, with
>retracement to 1000-1010 level, we're in for a sideways correction before
>moving on higher. Any opinions?
Hiya Earl:
I don't see any immediate decline in the stock market here but if it holds up until the 5th to 10th of
March my time/wave work would suggest we go back to an intraday low around 7503. March 31st or
thereabouts figures from a Spiral Calendar viewpoint as a potentially interesting low. That would be
then the end of Intermediate Wave 4 in the DJIA which started on 8/7/97 and setup a blowoff in the
second quarter as Intermediate 5 of Primary 5 of what I hope isn't Cycle 5 comes shooting out of the
box. I'm looking for a DJIA print of 9800 in mid-July to finish the beast.
The 9800 reasoning goes as follows:
1) The bull market from 1942 to 1966 gained 987% (a pure fibonacci number) before the bear market
began that eventually bottomed in 1974. The gain from 1974 to 1998 would be 1597%, 1.618 times the
length of the 1942-66 bull, at 9800.
2) The Elliott Wave count would have the move from the 10/10/90 low as an extended fifth. The start
of the bull market, in a wave sense, was 1982. In extended fifths the length of the fifth wave is 1.618
times the length of waves 1 through 3 added to the low of 4. When these events happen over a long
period of time, it is necessary to use percentage gain of 1 through 3 added to the low of 4. Using
percentage gain methodology, the high of 5 figures to be around 9800.
3) If the next low and end of Intermediate 4 is at 7503, where the fibonacci 14.6% retracement of
Intermediate 3 lies (you know me and fib retracements <g>), then Primary Wave 5 will be interpreted as
having an extended Intermediate 3rd wave. That generally means that Intermediate Waves 1 and 5 will
tend toward equality in length. Intermediate Wave 1 traveled 30.8%. If Intermediate Wave 5 starts at
7503 intraday on the DJIA and travels 30.8% it will peak at, there you go again, 9800....
So, let's enjoy the party while it lasts. If this all works out extended fifths have another side to them -
double retracement. The market retraces all the way back to the point where the fifth started before
turning around and making a new high. That means 2358 at the minimum and maybe 1711 in the next
bear. Oh well, maybe I'll come out west and live in the mountains with you.<g>
RAF
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