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At 01:55 PM 2/18/98 -0700, Jeff Walker wrote:
>Pete,
>
>>Surely these 356 did not change their minds over the weekend.
>>The larger universe of readings point elsewhere. See the last
>>Barrons.
>
>I am just reporting the results I get. As has been pointed out here before,
>this is not a scientific study. I don't control who enters the
>contest/survey. In fact, I don't really know who they are other than their
>email address. And I have no idea about correlations with other sentiment
>surveys. One thing that certainly contributes to disparities is that my
>survey is more timely - I publish within hours instead of days or weeks.
>
>I don't have much data, I have only been running the survey since last May.
>But I think that I have generated some interesting data already. For
>instance, look at the times when the one week bullish number has been
>greater than 60%: 10/5/97 and 8/8/97.
>
>>In the meantime we have a trading range in the stock
>>market. There is a strong need to take a pause. Today's
>>indices support this.
>
>All depends on the time frame you are looking at. But the daily chart for
>the SP500 sure doesn't look like a trading range to me. We do a lot of
>short term analysis on the stock indexes. You can take a look at our web
site.
>
>best,
>Jeff
>
>
>jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>http://www.lowrisk.com
>
Jeff,
I hope I did not sound as if I panned the whole idea. I find
great value in the discrepancies between the larger market
reported a bit late and the AAII. It is informative!
Today's market seems to prove me wrong about the trading
range. That was my interpretation. The investors' sentiment,
bullish versus bearish was the main point. You may be right.
The trend may continue. Tomorrow is statistically more often like
today than otherwise. But the OEX did not punch through. Only the DJIA.
The index graph slopes are just too steep lately. I don't
care how much money is being plowed into stock funds. It
can't push PE's much beyond 21 without some reaction.
As for unscientific studies they are fine. Lous Rukeyser's
elves saved me a bundle when they signalled 6 months out
to be a more than 10% down market in May 1987. I was almost
totally out by September. That was not necessarily science.
But I think you should care about the correlation of this
informal community with the other opinions.
A companion in the search,
Pete
petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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