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John.......
I believe that using seasonals has some reliability.....I use it in the
following way.....
As a filter to NOT trade against the seasonals........
ie:at the end of FEB. the entire energy complex has a seasonal bottom....
I will NOT take any short signals after this bottom is supposed to be in
place.
Same with Beans....seasonal low expected in Feb.....I will NOT short Beans
after Feb.
I have also, found that many of the services who give us seasonal
probabilities
have one major flaw......IF you look at the average profit vs the largest
drawdown....it is not worth the risk.....ie: 100% accurate buying xyz on 2/2
and selling on 3/3....$500.00
avg. profit...worst drawdown $1500.....All that they are doing is to run the
computer using a abc stop and giving you a % ratio.....ALL commodities move
up and down......
we can all be correct with a big enough stop.
Hope this helps......Tom Stein comfut@xxxxxxx
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