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Rt's
For those of you who have not tired on Sugar yet, there may be a very nice
opportunity long term in Sugar. I have included some gifs which I recommend
you print out first. It's then easier to follow my reasoning.
If we start with price support in Cash sugar, we find that we are right at
the trendline from 1985.with a low of 11,20
11,02 is the 38,2% retracement of the AB rise
10,84 is the 61,8% retracement of the CD rise.
Changing to the SUH8 chart we find that we had a low of 10.61 and a close
of 10.71in the March contract.
Just around the low we have at:
10.58 = 50%of wave W3 projected from top of W4
10,59 = 261,8% x W1 projected from top of W2
10,64 = W1=W4 projected from top of W4
10,62= 78,6% retracement of rise from 4/26/96 to 12/1/97
Check trend line from same date. Support?
(I am not sure wether 4/26/96 date is a usable low thogh. There IS an
april low in the cash index but it is higher than the Jan 97 low. However
in SUH, JAN low is haigher than April !? Explanation anybody?)
In other words, we have tremendous long and short time fib support (as well
as trendline support).
Time wise it's interesting to note that the rise XY = 67 calendar days (CD)
and the decline Y5=67CDs
The top is also 584 CDs from 4/26/96 (590CDs=1,618 of a year)
I have a note in my number library that says "Gann's inner square"=67 (does
anybody knows what that is? My knowledge of Gann is not very deep and I
don't remember why I wrote it down...)
In trading days however its 45 and 44 days (=90/2, where 90 is often seen
as a multiple where we often see trendchange).
We find that end of wave 1, cuts the time between bottom X and end of W5
exactly in harmonic 61,8% (the golden cut), with the top Y right in the
middle as explained earlier.
And interestingly we find that the rise of SUH stopped promptly at W2 when
Venus went retrograde on Dec 26, to decline W3 and W5. The question now is:
Will SUH now start it's original course again when Venus went direct last
Thursday. (2/5).
Looking at Carolans Spiral Calendar we find that with 2/6/98 as focus we
have turning points confirmed at 5/2,7/1, X, Y, and end of W1. They are in
order: Square root f 11, f10, f8,f5 and f4.
The way I probably will use this information, is to look for reversal day
on monday or any other clue that this is the low and end of W5 and go long,
then enter a stop and reverse order 2 ticks below the lowest low. My
reasoning is: if this support does not hold, we will probably have another
dramatic decline since we are breaking both fib and trendline support.
Wish me good luck,
Stig
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