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At 10:48 PM 12/10/97 -0800, nwinski wrote:
>Today I exited my
>long silver position. I last went long six weeks ago at equivalent basis
>March at 4.81 and today exited at 5.84 based on a target I generated
>shortly after entering this position.
I like this trade, Norman! Allow me to go out on a limb here and query if
there was some Astro-Gann-Fibonacci involved in your decision making
engine? While waiting on for you to finish your well deserved nap and get
back to us on that, I'll entertain the troops with some GET chart analysis.
Silver made a High on March 3, 1997 at 543.50 (all quotes based on
continuous Silver contract as per Primate Data). From whence it dropped in
a GET labeled 5 wave Elliott decline into a low at 419.00 on July 8.
Silver rallied and broke out of it's downward sloping trend regression
channels, from the March High, on July 31 at 455.85. This was a GET "TYPE
2" BUY SIGNAL that is triggered at the end of long moves. It requires
fives waves and a breakout of the channel that contains the five waves.
Forget GET for the moment. Notice that Silver broke out of it's four
month down trendline around the end of July. At the same time, it's
previous habit of making lower highs and lower lows came full circle and
Silver started making higher highs and higher lows. Wait, there's more.
On August 4 we have a Ross Hook. This formed at 454.00. A breakout above
here is another BUY SIGNAL. On August 15 we have that BUY with Silver
closing at 456.00.
Still not long?
Fast forward to October and send GET back in. We have a clear 3 wave
advance on the chart, with a high at 533.00, followed by a 62% (fib)
correction down to the 460 area. On October 28 we have a lower low but a
higher close on the day, a reversal bar. Silver continues up and breaks
out above the downward sloping trend regression channels coming down from
the late September 533.00 high. This occurs at 484.80 on November 4. The
is a GET "TYPE 1" Wave 5 BUY SIGNAL, targeting 5.50 to 6.50 for the move,
with an initial stop at the previous low at 4.64.
But wait, there's more. We have another Ross Hook, on November 7 at
487.30. The trendline containing this 62% retracement is broken to the
upside and we start getting higher highs and higher lows. Taking out this
Ross Hook at 487.30 is yet another BUY SIGNAL. This occurred on November
11, when Silver closed at 490.50.
While Norman may be out of the market, both GET and the Ross Hook
methodologies are still Long Silver, with stops somewhere below yesterday's
gap, let's say 560.00, just for closure purposes.
I like that sailing analogy too, Norman, But sometimes it feels more like
skydiving. Norman? Norman? Are you still asleep? Geez, what a life.
Allan (not just a neural net)
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