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If Hang Seng touches between 12600 to 13200 and the Dow touches between 7650
to 7750 anytime between November 6th., and November 10th. then I would not
want to hold LONG positions in any stock markets wherever they may be...
If this scenario holds true then, a great possibility of a crash could
develop between November 10th. and December 2nd. and if it is not a crash,
then we might simply be entering into a long bear market that could take the
Dow to 4000, 4500 level and the Hang Seng to the 2000 to 4000 area within 2
to 3 years...
When we look at previous crashes or deep bear markets, we find a similarity
at the start of such a move. In this case, Hang Seng dropped close to 50%
from his high within 8 to 10 weeks and in such a case, it tells me that they
now have their first leg down of a major correction (to an even greater
degree, if the above mentioned scenario happens - between Nov. 6th. and Nov
10th.).
What is also of some great significance is that the DOW has mimicked in
points (first leg down) and even went further than the entire move down of
1987 on the DOW (intraday 1987 = 1130 points) (l997 = 1328).
This whole scenario would be invalidated immediately if the DOW would break
above 8100 level at any given time within the next 3 to 4 months.
I hope that this could help your way of trading in the months or years ahead.
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Regards,
Jean Comeau
http://www.cgocable.ca/trader jcomeau@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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