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At 09:42 PM 10/29/97 -0600, you wrote:
>Bob Buran has a market theory called "The theory of the Screw." It's
premise is that the market must always move in way so as to " do the most
people out of their money." Given the backdrop of the equities market, a
severe 1987 type crash would not do the most people out of their money as
this type of steep drop followed by a quick recovery ( or start of a
recovery as was the case in 87 ) is what people have become used to.
However, a slowly declining market peppered with false recoveries would
posses the correct psychology to squeeze much of the profit from the buy
and hold crowd. An alternative scenerio would be a market similar to what
we have had the past few days, sharp drops with sharp recoveries, but the
recoveries being of a slightly less magnitude than the declines. Both
describe berar markets, but it is the way in which they are served up that
can prove the most devistating to most investors. People believe if they
just sit tight and hang on they will be OK. !
>Given a slow bear vs a quick crash, they could be enticed to hang on all
the way down ( where ever down is ) with each small upturn being the hope
that keeps em hangin on. Of course, sitting tight would work just fine if
we were not all cursed with such short life spans. I'm not saying this is
what is happening or that this is what is going to happen, just something
fun to think about.
>
>
PRECISELY CORRECT!!!
Its also my observation from the start. Lets see how great is IBM and
those who want to play hero in the rescue attempt. Is their resources
unlimited? I strongly believe market forces is stronger than any
entity(ties) around. No one is infallable.
Another thing to see is that the Tuesday volume were more attributed to the
buying of the public, last buyer is coming in to play were the so called
"retail investor". Isn't it they are the public who usually are the loser
or the unsophisticated?
The Hong Kong Hang Seng index is also nice to observe at the long run. In
which HS is called the last straw of Asia which its the most strongest to
say. Considering also the backup of financial superpower "China".
This is were WE as speculator comes into play by using technical analysis
to follow and anticipate the trend. Everybodys a winner, fundamentalist
and technician. Fundamentally speaking HK Hang Seng is strong and good but
the prices decline, we just cash in for the meat of market inefficiency.
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Best Regards!
Visavis
Visavis@xxxxxxx
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