|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Walt,
The reason that some will post congratulatory type posts to me and that you
and a couple of others keep getting all bent out of shape from my posts may
be a problem of perception, coupled with 'you see what you want to see'.
My posts deal MOSTLY with TIME. The prices I post are NOT DEFINITIVE, NOR DO
I STATE THEY ARE. Go back over and read them again.
When I tell you that tomorrow is going to be turn in a market, I will OFFER
you the possibility of some prices to watch. I am not saying, "it WILL turn
on this price..", etc.
What I am saying is, "since there is a turn tomorrow, let's look at some
support numbers", and then offer some prices.
IF you have been paying attention to anything I have been saying for over a
year now, you would know that I've always said, "if the price breaks below a
support price, look for it to go to the next price level."
I'm not God, Walt, much like yourself. I can reasonably forecast market
action (a whole lot better than your score card of me shows), but I still
have to look at what price it hits ON MY TIME DAY.
If I'm expecting a turn tomorrow, and I have 3 price levels for that day,
100, 125 and 150, and the market is at 90, I will then look first at 100,
then 125.
If it goes to 100 and turns, walla! If it goes to 115, I will expect this
turn to be one day late. If it goes to 125, walla! Get it?
Now obviously many people know this because they generously let me know when
my calls work out.
Now, let's address SnP, shall we?
I have been saying, OVER AND OVER AND OVER again, while prices were RISING,
that "next week will be a down week for SnP and ONLY for one week , then
prices shall rise again and not look back till mid-Nov..."
Now, you need this broken down for you? The market did EXACTLY as I said it
would, and I plastered it enough time to show I felt very strong about it,
and did not do the wishy washy type forecasting some others might do. I put
my neck out EACH week, big guy. Care to join in days in advance instead of
just the night before? Right.
Now, SnP went down for ONLY one week as forecasted. I suggested that since
it was going down, we need to determine what price it MAY stop at.
Running the calc on previous formations, I suggested a couple of prices that
seem reasonable to reach. The market blew thru. Big deal. Still the same
week I said "lower prices". Could go all the way to dirt and the forecast
was correct. But I'm trying to find someplace to watch.
Now, when it went thru the support price, I always look for the next LOGICAL
support price based on TTC. Once price meets time, I have a REASONABLE HIGH
PROBABILITY that a turn is due to occur.
Of course, when I offer you a time day when the market is LIKELY to turn,
would you like to do the honors and give us the EXACT price? Better think
carefully before answering.
Read my posts WITHOUT PREDUDICE, and you might actually see what I'm trying
to get across. TIME TIME TIME. Man, how many posts and articles do I have to
write until some get it that I deal in TIME, and then look for price to meet
it?
As for your question about, " >At what point should we have gone long ?????
>Did I miss a post detailing the long entry ???????
I cannot give trade recommendations Walt, you know that. I can teach,
develope, trade, and provide market data, but not tell you what to buy at
what price, etc. CFTC would consider that stepping over the line.
But let me ask you this, if you had FULL faith in my forecast that last week
would make the lowest low, and that lowest low registered on Friday, the
very last day of the week, YOU TELL ME WHERE YOU WOULD GO LONG.
How about ANYWHERE?
Whatever.
rick
PS:
Walt, I tire of your two-sided personality. I'm posting this here to let all
know that you will say on the one hand via private email, "we are having a
friendly discussion", but on the other you make not so complimentary
comments to others via private email of what you 'really' think. Personally,
I have trouble not only trusting individuals like yourself, but I can care
less when two-sided individuals cannot understand my forecasts.
-----Original Message-----
From: Walt Downs <knight@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, October 21, 1997 1:57 PM
Subject: FUTR GEN: RR/ TTC / FDATE SP500 calls
>Rick,
>
>OK, I have to admit to a bit of puzzlement here.
>
>You've been calling for the SP500 to find support, and trade higher,
>from 980 (!) on down. I watched the TTC support levels reel by like
>mile markers at the Indianapolis 500.....
>
>the final call I saw, was for the SP500 to find support at 949.
>
>On that Day, the SP blew through 949 like a woodchipper, on it's way
>to 935.
>
>Now, today, I am seeing alot of back slapping, and palm pressing, and
>I don't know WHAT to think. :)
>
>I guess the only questions I have are:
>
>At what point should we have gone long ?????
>Did I miss a post detailing the long entry ???????
>
>Walt Downs
>CIS Trading
>
|