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> Fra: John Dundee <jdundee@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Til: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Emne: Re: STOCKS
> Dato: Sunday, October 05, 1997 8:51 PM
>
> >
> This forum spends allot of time discussing formulas, results of back
> testing, how to program etc. Most of us are not programmers or want to
> be. There is no reason to be concerned with it as there is so much
> already available in many software programs.
>
> Triple Whammy Double EZ indicator crossing over
> the Wave Crash & Flop Index is of no benefit to anyone. Including how to
> trade the market.
>
> I hope there is more "how to trade" the market exchanges using standard
> indicators we can all relate to.
>
> JD
>
John,
I agree, and therefore I have assembled some pieces of the Great Puzzle,
without too much indicator talk.
Suddenly all the pieces seem to fall in place.
On October 3-5 we have had a wealth of planetary aspects, and today 10/5 is
what Supertraders Almanac define as an Astro Day.
On these instances we usually see tops and bottoms in different markets and
once in a while we see break outs or accelerations of price (15%).
When the planet Mars is involved the action often comes early (like the
gold/silver breakout).
Now, using Nature's Pulse D-cycle and using high lows from June22-95 (the
12 pivots e-mailed if asked for) and Time Window bars=3 and Multiplier
filer with 1,382/1,618/2.0/2,618/4,236, you will find that we have the
greatest number of clusters on the screen concentrated on October 5!
Another indicartion for trend change in T-Bonds from the the Friday High.
And what is interesting about the Friday high, is that it can be described
as a Wide Range Day with a close on the lower half + close below the open.
Further supporting Friday for the high for some time.
In Robert Miner's monthly letter with data through sept 28, he concludes
that a close ABOVE 116.21 voids his bearish outloook. – Close this Friday :
116.21 (He is always very precise…..)
So can we expect higher rates?
One argument would be if we were to have higher inflation.
Well, we actually had a gap up and break out on the UPSIDE of a rising
wedge in the Nov CRB Index (and break out, with supporting volume, on what
could be regarded as a flat top triangle in the cash index).
Please remember that a rising wedge is bearish and a breakout is supposed
to be downside. Strangely enough we have latelely had several breakouts
upside in different markets (something you don't find explained in any of
the Chartpattern Books – it is as if they don't occur…). These breakouts
are, I have found, usually very powerful and a swift rise in the now CRB
index should be expected ----- higher inflation.
GOLD/SILVER the "early revealers of inflation". Is what we now see, just a
short covering rally or a longterm trend change?
Some time ago Robert Miner said (he has been trading and writing about
precious metals since, I belive 1979), that gold 1) usualluy make long
terme trend changes (bottoms) on exhaustion moves and 2)often breaking
long term support at the same time.
If we look at the move on 7/3/97 and 7/7/97, 1) gold fell 20 dollars in two
days and 7/797 ended with an exhaustion gap 5 dollars wide. 2) We also
broke the low from march 93!
Futhermore the low was made one tradingday from Aphellon (earth furthest
from sun) a notrious date for trade change in different markets. This was
also a new moon and we also saw a couple of more astronomical aspects that
result in trend change.
July 5 was also the aniversary of two other important trend changes.
(August Gold: high 1980(390,8) and August Gold 1989 high (390,8) – (data
from supertrader's almanac). Aniversary dates not seldom repeat.
Personally I don't need much more evidence to convince me that 7/7/97 was a
long term bottom.
But we could always look at what happened after the bottom.
Gold developed a flat bottom in DEC gold and in the London market a pennant
with a false downside breakout.(indicating apowerful move upside (which we
have just witnessed)
Silver in divegence fashion developed a widening rising trend channel, and
when the break out came from the long term falling trend line – it also
broke out UPSIDE of the RISING trend channel – which was then again tested
this Friday 10/3/97.
If we also consider a falling dollar with a downward seasonality for the
rest of the year a rising gold price is not difficult to imagine.
I don't need much more to convince me that we will have higher commodity
prices in the future (el Nino will certainly help) – hence higher rates –
lower bondprices.
In the face of October coming up, with statistcally lower stockprices, the
prospects for higher stock prices seem slim to me. Doesn't the divergence
between S&P (new high) and Dow Jones index (No new high) tell us something?
Or that Dow Jones Utilities have had lower lows for some time now, while
S&P/DJ have been heading higher.
Well, that's a philosopher's view: We just saw the highs in t-bonds and S&P
last Friday.
TIMESTAMPED
Stig
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