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Arnold Thompson wrote:
Trading fundamentals in the commodities you should know that each
commodity has it's own set of criteria. These are unique to each
commodity's actual physical procurement, processing, distribution and
useage.
That said, I would like to point out that seasonals are a factor that
you should investigate first, and then the reasons behind it, if you
are
so fundamentally inclined. Seasonals are evident in the pricing of the
Futures contract months. Any quick glance at the price discrepancies in
the future months of many commodities should make one wonder WHY???
Case in point, ALMOST every year soybean new crop is heavily discounted
to old crop. SEPT vs NOV. This produces a Price Chart where an obvious
decline occurs just because of the roll over from one contract to
another.
Now, Heating Oil will exhibit the same seasonality. But I leave you to
investigate that. Not because I want to tease you, but I don't really
follow that market on a yearly basis and I would have to investigate
before I could make an observational statement of any verified
accuracy.
So, there are as many opinions as there are people that trade. I give
great weight to seasonals for trend analysis. I beleive you will find a
bearish tendancy starting in Heating Oil at this time of year. Reason
being, most often sited, is that the inventory is already built up as
the cold weather starts in the fall. There is no demand, much like
Christmas toys in July.
The two frequent time periods that a bull market can start is February
& July. Heavy inventory placements are taking place. One to get thru
a harsh winter, two to get ready for fall.
Try www.mrci.com, Moore's Research, for good seasonal work. For basic
fundamentals I don't know. I've just picked them up. I also use
charting with Fibinnoci and Elliotwave analysis. Try
www.elliottwave.com for books/services. Fibinnoci is so prevalent,
there are probaly many resources. For price charting, there are so
many, you can be more specific in your needs and post that seperately.
There is a whole other world out there that I do not pursue. A
simplicity approach. But the indicator world is full of
mathematicians. Books have been devoted to the SuperStars of trading
and they do use them.
>
> Joe Frabosilio wrote:
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > I'm really new to the futures area. I'm trying to use my basic tech
> > skills that I use on stocks to futures. I've been paper trading heating
> > oil, it looks like it was in a trading range, then busted through the
> > support level. Now it looks like its trying to come back up, but the
> > price momentum doesn't look like its going up. The volume looks like
> > avg.
> >
> > Does anyone know the lifetime low and high for heating oil? Are there
> > any other areas should I be looking at, that my help with trying to see
> > where it might go(down/up)?
> >
> > Would you buy an option now or wait? If so, what month?
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