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Rick_Ratchford wrote:
(This post is an ongoing discussion on Fib/gann turning points and
alternate turning point systems. the latest responses from myself to
Rick are in double >>>>>
>>>>> . )
> > > Case in point:
> > >
> > > If a 3 day window is considered not a good thing by some analyst, do
> > > they have a smaller window? Of course not. What they have are leading
> > > and lagging indicators, which gives you no precise idea of a time frame.
> >
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
> > Please see attached "TREX" gif. These turning points were calculated
> > using a system that utilizes neither Gann nor Fibonacci ratios. I
> > would say it represents a smaller window.
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > > So, if they can't do better, are they really an authority on this
> > > subject?
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > Please see TREX gif :)
> > <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
>
> Whoa! Wait a minute here. Are you trying to tell me, and everyone else
> here, that you can forecast every single turn in any market in ADVANCE?
> If that was true, you have indeed found the Holy Grail!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
(Laughing) Well, I wish it was true, but, of course not :)
I am showing a methodology that I feel is more accurate than
a Fib/Gann time day methodology. As you yourself note later on
in this post, quite a few of the turning points were + or -
x points from the actual reversal. BUT this is an important
difference Rick. We are talking PRICE, not TIME. You will note
that the differentials were small enough for even a trader
with a small account to sell or buy the market once it started to
move away after coming very close to, or hitting the TREX level.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Look at that Trex .gif. Every single turn nailed. Man, you must be some
> super mega millionaire by now.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I'm working on it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Silly Wabbit, Trex is for kids. :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Sign me the Energizer Bunny, and lead on McDuff.......
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> I imagine that what Trex does, and you can correct me, is tell you when
> to enter at the time/day/exact moment the move is in progress in the
> opposite direction. If so, that is hardly forecasting.
>
> And if it isn't forecasting but a few indicators screaming NOW! to
> enter, this is tantamount to hindsight.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nope, these levels aren't indicators, they are mathematical
calculations of price and time for each given day
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Again, I have no idea what Trex is, so I'm speculating. But I don't
> believe there exists ANY human who can't walk on water forecast EVERY
> single turn in ADVANCE. One look at that chart and that is what you seem
> to be implying.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You need to make up your mind Rick, either I am hitting the points
or not :) (see below)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> > > don't put into the heads of new traders that they must fill their plate
> > > with all kinds of goofy indicators. (read my article on "Indicator-itis"
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > Uh..... Rick, are we talking about the same indicators you claim
> > are necessary to make a 3 day TP window effective ? What confirming
> > indicators would you suggest?
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Nothing wrong with Indicators walt if you just use a couple. I don't use
> what many would call indicators exactly. What I called an indicator with
> Fdates is just sup/res from TTC, and the bias which is pretty much the
> short term trend (eyeball it). Read
> http://FSoftPublishing.com/lessons/bias.htm if you haven't already on
> what I suggest for my time days.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ok, I'll check it out.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> By the way. The dartboard idea is a much lower probability than a good
> time day, even with 3 days. Why?
>
> 1) How many should you throw for each separate market each week? If
> there is only one or two true turns in a market in a month, and you
> throw 4 or 5, you are really chasing ghosts.
>
> 2) Should you throw one in each week, or double up 2 and 2 and leave two
> weeks with none?
>
> You will end up with a much lower hit/miss ratio using such an idea as
> darts. But, its your money. :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well, let's consider the descriprtion of your time day trading
method here. First we will pick our TD (dart 1) then we will use
the various sup/res levels generated by the TTC (dart2, dart3 dart4)
along with eyeballing the "bias" (dart 5).................
They sound awfully similar. Lets get back to basics here. TELL ME
about a winning trade you had. Walk me through the steps that you
used, and how you have designed those steps into a rule based system
that will allow you to be profitable in the long run. With that as
a starting point, I will be able to evaluate how valid your system
is. :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> The so-called 3 day window, or +/- one day allowance is more for
> allowing a trader to be ready just in case. When you have sup/res and
> the time day, plus the bias going in your direction, you are really
> isolating ONE DAY ONLY. Only one day will fit this bill, not all three.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Give me a concrete example please
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> The point is, we isolate to the DAY. Yet, when forecasted AHEAD of time,
> we may be a DAY off.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
semi-right is semi-dead
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> ONE MORE POINT!
>
> I noticed on your TREX chart that you had 11 ONE DAY OFF THE VERY TOP OR
> BOTTOM! Only 6 were right on.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You need to think about the implications of what you just said.
6 at * 0 days * 11 at *1 day * This is a window of 0 or 1 NOT
+/- 1 day (3days).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Did you know that with time days, sup/res price, and the market
> direction that this is done all the time? Yep. We FORECAST the turn, and
> then we confirm and trade. Most we confirm the very DAY. Some, obviously
> the day AFTER. I noted more of yours were the day AFTER.
>
> Many here remember when I forecasted each turning point in Soybeans in
> the month prior to it happening. You'll note that they too are either a
> day after or right on. Go to my website and see it for yourself. Looks
> like your chart, but it WAS forecasted here BEFORE it happened.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Then you must be megazillionaire. :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> In closing, you will make a real believer out of me if you can forecast
> the next 5 turns in a row of ANY market of your choosing and state up
> front whether you are going to be RIGHT ON or whether you will have a
> WINDOW. No doubt if you did forecast all those turns, you do use a
> window since most did not hit on the pivot day.
>
> You game?
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I notice you have already lent yourself a statistical edge in this
transaction. What are the benefits to the RT forum? What will be
learned? Why should I accept trading terms that are not in my favor?
What can you offer me that would make taking this skewed offer
acceptable? Why are you so desperate to prove the methodology
wrong in some way? What does this have to do with our discussion
of the validity of Fibb/Gann forecasting? You have made no effort
to fully illustrate a REAL trade using your methodology. You have
failed to answer even ONE of my arguments concerning these issues.
As to my abilities as a forcaster, hey I'm just a guy who has taken
home a paycheck from the markets for 3 years now. :)
We need to resolve these issues into a discussion which will benefit
the forum. If you feel that Fib/Gann is relevant and tradeable put
forth your arguments(I've seen your bean chart and the turns looked
good, but how has it done in the long run, is it good for most
markets, are the trading rules easy with few exceptions....etc. )
Walt :)
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