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Walt Downs wrote:
>
> Somehow, I had a strange feeling that Rick Ratchford, who is a major
> proponent of Fib/Gann time days, would be responding to the "duck"
> post :)
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> If you have four signals in one month, and each signal is alloted
> 3 days to be confirmed as valid, you have accounted for better than
> 50% of a trading month. As a selective trading process, this sounds
> pretty random to me. It is not my contention that these points do not
> have signifigance. It IS my contention that one could do just as well
> with a dartboard :)
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Yep, just as good as any random walk statistical postulation (i.e.
> any mathematical ratio) with confirming indicators
>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> >
> > Case in point:
> >
> > If a 3 day window is considered not a good thing by some analyst, do
> > they have a smaller window? Of course not. What they have are leading
> > and lagging indicators, which gives you no precise idea of a time frame.
>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
> Please see attached "TREX" gif. These turning points were calculated
> using a system that utilizes neither Gann nor Fibonacci ratios. I
> would say it represents a smaller window.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> > So, if they can't do better, are they really an authority on this
> > subject?
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> Please see TREX gif :)
> <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Whoa! Wait a minute here. Are you trying to tell me, and everyone else
here, that you can forecast every single turn in any market in ADVANCE?
If that was true, you have indeed found the Holy Grail!
Look at that Trex .gif. Every single turn nailed. Man, you must be some
super mega millionaire by now.
Silly Wabbit, Trex is for kids. :)
I imagine that what Trex does, and you can correct me, is tell you when
to enter at the time/day/exact moment the move is in progress in the
opposite direction. If so, that is hardly forecasting.
And if it isn't forecasting but a few indicators screaming NOW! to
enter, this is tantamount to hindsight.
Again, I have no idea what Trex is, so I'm speculating. But I don't
believe there exists ANY human who can't walk on water forecast EVERY
single turn in ADVANCE. One look at that chart and that is what you seem
to be implying.
> > If you can't trade time days, don't assume no one else can't. Also,
> > don't put into the heads of new traders that they must fill their plate
> > with all kinds of goofy indicators. (read my article on "Indicator-itis"
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> Uh..... Rick, are we talking about the same indicators you claim
> are necessary to make a 3 day TP window effective ? What confirming
> indicators would you suggest?
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nothing wrong with Indicators walt if you just use a couple. I don't use
what many would call indicators exactly. What I called an indicator with
Fdates is just sup/res from TTC, and the bias which is pretty much the
short term trend (eyeball it). Read
http://FSoftPublishing.com/lessons/bias.htm if you haven't already on
what I suggest for my time days.
By the way. The dartboard idea is a much lower probability than a good
time day, even with 3 days. Why?
1) How many should you throw for each separate market each week? If
there is only one or two true turns in a market in a month, and you
throw 4 or 5, you are really chasing ghosts.
2) Should you throw one in each week, or double up 2 and 2 and leave two
weeks with none?
You will end up with a much lower hit/miss ratio using such an idea as
darts. But, its your money. :)
The so-called 3 day window, or +/- one day allowance is more for
allowing a trader to be ready just in case. When you have sup/res and
the time day, plus the bias going in your direction, you are really
isolating ONE DAY ONLY. Only one day will fit this bill, not all three.
The point is, we isolate to the DAY. Yet, when forecasted AHEAD of time,
we may be a DAY off.
ONE MORE POINT!
I noticed on your TREX chart that you had 11 ONE DAY OFF THE VERY TOP OR
BOTTOM! Only 6 were right on.
Did you know that with time days, sup/res price, and the market
direction that this is done all the time? Yep. We FORECAST the turn, and
then we confirm and trade. Most we confirm the very DAY. Some, obviously
the day AFTER. I noted more of yours were the day AFTER.
Many here remember when I forecasted each turning point in Soybeans in
the month prior to it happening. You'll note that they too are either a
day after or right on. Go to my website and see it for yourself. Looks
like your chart, but it WAS forecasted here BEFORE it happened.
In closing, you will make a real believer out of me if you can forecast
the next 5 turns in a row of ANY market of your choosing and state up
front whether you are going to be RIGHT ON or whether you will have a
WINDOW. No doubt if you did forecast all those turns, you do use a
window since most did not hit on the pivot day.
You game?
cheers!
:)
rick
--
**** http://FSoftPublishing.com ****
Market Of The Week Forecast
http://FSoftPublishing.com/forecast/forecast.htm
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