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Somehow, I had a strange feeling that Rick Ratchford, who is a major
proponent of Fib/Gann time days, would be responding to the "duck"
post :)
Rick brought up some interesting points which, in the interest of
clarifying some muddy points for traders old and new alike, I would
like to respond to (responses in >>> <<<<< brackets).
Rick_Ratchford wrote:
> Analysis of the markets is not an easy subject. It seems that there are
> so many opinions as to what is the best way to do this or that.
> Sometimes, however, when I read 'between the lines', as it were, I read
> of statements where an opinion is stated as a fact. Once example is when
> a 3 day turn window is considered not a good thing.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you have four signals in one month, and each signal is alloted
3 days to be confirmed as valid, you have accounted for better than
50% of a trading month. As a selective trading process, this sounds
pretty random to me. It is not my contention that these points do not
have signifigance. It IS my contention that one could do just as well
with a dartboard :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> By itself, I could see this. But with other criterial or confirmation
> indicators to assist, having such a 3 day window is better than ANYTHING
> you can find.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yep, just as good as any random walk statistical postulation (i.e.
any mathematical ratio) with confirming indicators
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Case in point:
>
> If a 3 day window is considered not a good thing by some analyst, do
> they have a smaller window? Of course not. What they have are leading
> and lagging indicators, which gives you no precise idea of a time frame.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
Please see attached "TREX" gif. These turning points were calculated
using a system that utilizes neither Gann nor Fibonacci ratios. I
would say it represents a smaller window.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> So, if they can't do better, are they really an authority on this
> subject?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Please see TREX gif :)
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
>
> It usually annoys me when comments are made about those who trade within
> 3 day windows are 'gurus' who make excuses. These statements are usually
> made by those who have not found a way PERSONALLY to use them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Quite to the contrary, I have done extensive analysis with, and on
Fib/Gann sets. I am well versed in their application, and in their
advantages and shortcomings. I would not have ventured an OPINION
if this were not the case. :)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> If you want to know about trading time days, you ask those who
> specialize in them. If someone has to make excuses for a window that
> grows bigger than +/- one day off, then that person specializes in
> something else, not pure time days.
>
> If you can't trade time days, don't assume no one else can't. Also,
> don't put into the heads of new traders that they must fill their plate
> with all kinds of goofy indicators. (read my article on "Indicator-itis"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Uh..... Rick, are we talking about the same indicators you claim
are necessary to make a 3 day TP window effective ? What confirming
indicators would you suggest?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The rest of Rick's post is an example of some of his trading ideas
and concepts. It looked interesting. For the full post see his
original "duck Phooey" message.
When dealing with traders, it is true that no two traders ever trade
exactly alike, or have the same viewpoint of a particular trading
style. All we can do is present our ideas and arguments, and allow
other traders to make up their own minds as to the validity of our
position.
I stand by my assertions. I have offered counter arguments to Rick's
assertions, and I also offer a realtime trading record at:
http://www.cistrader.com
under the CIS INFORMATION CENTER "Realtime Trading Account",
as further proof that I am not just an "analyst" spouting
off :)
In closing, I would like to say that anything I might EVER say on this
forum is, of course, just my opinion.
I would certainly like to see more debate on the Elliot/Gann/Fib
controversy. It is interesting.
All the best to Rick and Every one :)
Walt Downs
CIS Trading
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