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invstr@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
>
> >Dan,
> > Seems I've heard this song before. So, how about the panic of 1873
> >which led to 23 years of prolonged depression? Was that the Fed?
> >And then there was the big 1854? top. And the 1837 bank panic which
> >almost bourght down the entire financial system. and so on and so on.
> >And before that there was the South Seas Bubble, the Mississippi Bubble,
> >and the Tulip Bulb Bubble. Where was the Fed during those panics?
> >Or have we truly enterd a permanent plateau of prosperity as was
> >declared
> >in 1928-29 just before the crash? Seems I've heard this song before.
> >
> >Singingly,
> >
> >Norman
> >
> >
>
> Dear Norman,
>
> Your point? I didn't say that I had an explanation for every economic
> crash in the last 200 hundred years. I was simply responding to Chris's
> analysis of the '29 crash. Crashes can and do occur without the Fed, but
> the one in '29 was directly related to a restriction (strangling) of loose
> credit provided by the fed during the previous 10 years.
>
> Dan
Dan,
My point is that out of all those panics, recessions, and depressions,
the Fed can only be implicated one time and then, according to you,
they worked at it one whole decade before they had any results. Seems to
me that given all the other evidence, the Fed is has been indicted based
on circumstantial evidence. History has repeadetly shown that the real
villian of the business cycle is the mass psychology of human nature.
Mr. Shakespere said, "all the world's a stage and all the people its
players". It seems to me that in many ways, the script was written
millions of years ago and that each generation acts out the same play
perhaps with a little differenct spin according to their own
interpretation. If the Fed did tighten in the late 20s, on a
subconscious level, it was only to facilitate the correct end of the
play. There is
always an excuse after the fact, except of course when there isn't.
Just read the Wall Street Journal. They are masters of excuse
manufacturing. Except, ever now and then the market has a big move
and they just kind of throw up their hands and don't know why it moved.
Ain't human folly grand?
Cheers,
Norman
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