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Tom Fahey wrote:
>
> OK, I tried using technical analysis today and I think I have found a
> free lunch. I mentioned last time we spoke that first the DEM broke then
> CHF and soon JPY. Well my simple 13-week ROC between JPY/DEM and CHF/DEM
> suggest swissie has some catching up to do.
>
> OK, get this Norman, it fits with fundamentals! You see, everyone is
> playing the devaluation game and the Swiss will not risk sending the
> economy back into stagnation. Their GDP growth in the last six years
> averaged 0%. The SNB have given all the signals that they want the franc
> lower. This includes market intervention and pumping the banking system
> with liquidity not to mention jawboning "we want the franc lower!". The
> franc is a liitle slow to react becasue of the safe haven mirage that
> capital will flow there to escape the soft euro. But it is a true
> mirage, why put your money in Geneva when you can send it to the City or
> NY and get 4-500 bps more for your money? Blah, blah, blah... right
> Norm.
>
> OK back to technicals, the 13-week ROC tells me JPY/CHF has 3.02% to
> catch up to JPY/DEM. So sell the franc/buy yen and buy me lunch.
>
> Tom.
Blah Blah Blah Nothing. I really enjoyed Tom's speak on how these
currencies interact and what some are trying to do to hold them, move
them, etc. This makes for interesting reading in my book, and of course
I wouldn't mind if Norman told us what to expect if Jupiter and Mars
collided with Venus' second cousin at the same time the currencies are
expecting a report. :) All good stuff to me.
For my two cents since I traded Sept. Jap Yen today (first day back in
semi-daytrading since 1991). Monday was a Fdate bottom that held all
week. Being a down trending market and the trading rules for Fdates are
NO TRADING AGAINST THE TREND, I looked for an opportunity to short this
market ONCE the bottom was taken out since it usually signifies strength
(in this case weakness) of a market.
My order was hit and I watch this market take me down for a nice long
one day ride...
Not sure what the underlying reasons are for the Yen's drop, nor for
trading purposes do I care. I do care for educational reasons and pure
current events type information. That is why I enjoyed Tom's post.
Anyway, there will be another excellent opportunity (hopefully) coming
up in a couple of weeks in this market. That is, of course, if it is
going to provide an entry in the direction of the trend. :)
Look forward to anymore comments on the currencies from other methods
and techniques.
cheers!
:)
rick
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