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Tom Fahey wrote:
> OK, I tried using technical analysis today and I think I have found a
> free lunch. I mentioned last time we spoke that first the DEM broke
> then
> CHF and soon JPY. Well my simple 13-week ROC between JPY/DEM and
> CHF/DEM
> suggest swissie has some catching up to do.
>
> OK, get this Norman, it fits with fundamentals! You see, everyone is
> playing the devaluation game and the Swiss will not risk sending the
> economy back into stagnation. Their GDP growth in the last six years
> averaged 0%. The SNB have given all the signals that they want the
> franc
> lower. This includes market intervention and pumping the banking
> system
> with liquidity not to mention jawboning "we want the franc lower!".
> The
> franc is a liitle slow to react becasue of the safe haven mirage that
> capital will flow there to escape the soft euro. But it is a true
> mirage, why put your money in Geneva when you can send it to the City
> or
> NY and get 4-500 bps more for your money? Blah, blah, blah... right
> Norm.
>
> OK back to technicals, the 13-week ROC tells me JPY/CHF has 3.02% to
> catch up to JPY/DEM. So sell the franc/buy yen and buy me lunch.
>
> Tom.
Tom
FYI, I had just finished catching up on the wave count on US/SFR. Just
completed the Wave 4 correction of a zigazag. The dollar/swiss has a
very high probability of seeing new high. Don't know much about
fundamentals. But technicals tell me that it's a strong sell of the
SFR.
Have a good one
Jeff Harteam
Hong Kong
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