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Adrian:
You and I have communicated privately, but I also wanted to add a few points
about neural nets in general. Being eager to use anything in my trading that
works, whether it is my company's vehicle or somebody elses, I tried neural
nets awhile back. I agree that the problem is as you say, i.e. training a
neural net seems no better than defining parameters in an oscillator based
system. You're tied to using optimizing to a certain segment of time. If your
optimized system or neural net is not adapting itself to properties of the
market are constant, that you're dead meat. The system or neural net will
always disintigrate.
On the brighter side, though--I believe that there is a way to use neural
nets that can be a practical adjunct to entry and exit methods. Some money
managers for example use neural nets and retrain them every week. This is
required because, as has been discussed on RealTraders before by Mr. Winski,
myself, and another guy whose name I forget, the market is intelligently
adaptive. It's like cockroaches which adapt themselves to the lastest
insecticide formulation.
Eddie Kwong
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In a message dated 97-07-18 02:06:09 EDT, you write:
<< I am a novice from New Zealand ( not too far from the south pole )and I
trade the US market based on end-of-day data.
I recently spent thousands on purchasing neural network & intermarket
analysis software from a company in Florida but I just can't seem to get
any joy from the supposedly "predictive capabilities" of these junk
software. They appear to be no more than glorified lagging indicators.
Are there any out there who have had experience with such products? Any
advice on how to benefit from them will be very much appreciated.
Adrian
>>
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