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> Even the VERY BEST system will get run over by forces more numerous and
> perhaps more powerful than can be programmed into that system OR meet the
> eye.
> For Instance:
> Take a dominant cycle high or low point, forecast in measured 'cycle time'
> to occur at a future date (i.e., connect previous lows/highs, then project
> out... If the market has been trading sideways, just "meandering" just
> before this occurs, then "takes off like a rocket"- most
> math/stat/probability "systems" are going to signal you to exit or enter
> prematurely. Every one of us that have been around even for a short
period
> of time have witnessed this.
> Even then, "phase" of cycles are known to "shift". This is just ONE
factor
> that NO-Body can program into ANY system.
> In my life experiences, having a good math/stat/probability program,
> adhering to its rules, but more importantly, diversifying its use among as
> MANY instruments as you can keep track of helps alot. On a down day in
the
> emini, your model is going to have you both long and short on many
> instruments, helping to remain more delta neutral.
> The challenge and fun is being able to recognize the market's
metamorphosis
> yet is secondary to making $$.
>
>
> Marc Miller
I am re-sending this as it was lost in cyberspace
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