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Just finished reading this book over the holidays.
I wanted to share my perspective on what I read and
get others opinions as to their take on what Mr.
Williams is teaching.
Just as a foreward I trade the NQ e-mini Futures
contracts intraday, and only intraday.
I have to say he had me throughly engrossed in his
book for the first 100pages. It wasn't until I reached
Chapter 7-Level II "The Advanced beginner" that I
started to feel this sick feeling in my stomach.
The words Elliot-Wave-counting flew off the page and
forcefully made contact with my eyes. I can't remember
for sure, because I *think* I blocked it out, but I
felt tears forming...
I do remember saying please Bill, please don't tell me
that you've discovered consistent trading through
a heavy reliance or statistically useful significance
of the EL Theory.
Bill goes on to say that the MFI(market facilitation
index) is the key, "This is where the truth of the
market is found" in his own words on page.88
One page later he talks about how volume plays into it
as well, and the MFI and Volume together are a
powerful trading tool. Seems to me that the tape,
volume, and price action do that just fine?
In discussing the EL waves and their structure he
writes as most Ellioticians do, that is to say,"The
best way to ANTICIPATE and target the end of wave.X
is to examine........."
Anticipate......yeah, I remember when I used to do
that. I most definitely remember the outcomes of
99.99% of those anticipations of mine as well.
He says, on page 107,... "that Ellioticians discuss
tendencies and they are neither permanent or precise.
In addition, these relationships change over time.
Just as you begin to count on them and place money on
your interpretation, they change. WE HAVE SOLVED THAT
PROBLEM."
Solved? Hummm...and the book is only $65dollars US?
That sentence alone just about had me on the floor. As
every single trader I've known from 22 to 82 that
told me or attempted to show me for that matter, that
they use the Elliot Wave in their intraday trading has
never exclaimed that within this theory they've found
a consistent trading solution. They certainly haven't
been able to prove to me in their realtime trading.
After gobbling up more and more spoonfuls of Level
Three: "The Competent Trader", I get to page.154,
where Bill is kind enough to state, "This approach
works with all times frames, BUT it becomes a bit
cumbersome with intraday trading.
Cumbersome.....yeah
hummm...I wonder how much more so?
Now, I'm going to preface the rest of what I'm about
to say with these words: I realize all too well, that
one mans pile of junk is another's treasure trove. So,
I'm not here to *hit all over someone elses parade.
Ok, so, I've been trading NQ Futures going on almost
two years now. Paper, simulator and realtime trading,
only intraday, mostly one contract. In the last 3
months finally have something that bangs out
consistent daily profits.
I've tried and applied just about every different
indicator you've heard of, even some you haven't.
Come up with a few and paid to have it coded only to
later find out in Technical Analysis from A to Z, that
some other Bloke, has already been there and done
that.
So, whats my question, what am I looking for, what
kind of responses am I expecting?
Is there anyone on this list, or anyone that you know
and have SEEN first hand trade successfully,
Consistently, INTRADAY on any instrument using the
Elliot Wave Theory as a foundational cornerstone to
their methodology?
Has anyone that has read this book, been able to
convert the written words of Bill Williams into a
workable intraday trading system, such as what he has
fully attempted to describe?
If so, I wouldn't mind hearing from you either on this
list or offline.
Whats in it for you?
I have the system that Bill is describing in his book
fully coded in Easy Language, a prior version to the
current however. My friend is in the process of
converting it and will have it ready to load into 7.x
in a few weeks.
I'd be willing to fully share my results both the
backtested and "going forward" results with somone
that has profitable results from their fractal based
system.
best wishes for all in 2004.
mike ball
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