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Mike,
I studied Elliott Wave for many, *many* years. I discovered relationships
that would make people drop dead as to how accurate and amazing they were. I
was hypnotized with Elliott and Fibonacci stuff. Nobody could even come
close to my stuff.
BUT.
Did it help me make money? NO
Why? It puts you into a predicting "mode".
Most of the time, in order to stay "true" to the theory, stops were huge and
the results were losses.
It "worked" only on Dow Jones. It does NOT work on anything else. Only
dummies who think they see waves in other
securities/currencies are gullible enough to believe they can actually
"count" the waves. Yeah right!
When it worked on the Dow Jones, it seemed to work in phases. The period of
late 70's to 81 it did not work very well.
1982-1991 worked great. 1992 to the present it has pretty much stopped
working except sporadically in 1997-1998. It only works for people who sell
books, seminars and newsletters.
>From the dates I put up above someone is likely to think that those were
"trending" times when it worked. But it has nothing to do with trends.
The worst part of this for *me* was that I got into this Elliott stuff and
had a *really* hard time getting rid of it from my mind. Its like I
brainwashed myself into this crap and could *not* let go!
Anyway, for most people, my suggestion would be to stay away from those
ideas. They won't help you make a dime.
Look somewhere else on how to trade.
I was reading your post and could not have written it better.
I don't have the book and it's one less that I have to put on my shelf.
----- Original Message -----
From: "mike ball" <thinkpad600e@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "omega" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2004 11:22 AM
Subject: Chaos Theory and Bill Williams, Ph.D
> List-
>
> Just finished reading this book over the holidays.
> I wanted to share my perspective on what I read and
> get others opinions as to their take on what Mr.
> Williams is teaching.
>
> Just as a foreward I trade the NQ e-mini Futures
> contracts intraday, and only intraday.
>
> I have to say he had me throughly engrossed in his
> book for the first 100pages. It wasn't until I reached
> Chapter 7-Level II "The Advanced beginner" that I
> started to feel this sick feeling in my stomach.
>
> The words Elliot-Wave-counting flew off the page and
> forcefully made contact with my eyes. I can't remember
> for sure, because I *think* I blocked it out, but I
> felt tears forming...
>
> I do remember saying please Bill, please don't tell me
> that you've discovered consistent trading through
> a heavy reliance or statistically useful significance
> of the EL Theory.
>
> Bill goes on to say that the MFI(market facilitation
> index) is the key, "This is where the truth of the
> market is found" in his own words on page.88
>
> One page later he talks about how volume plays into it
> as well, and the MFI and Volume together are a
> powerful trading tool. Seems to me that the tape,
> volume, and price action do that just fine?
>
> In discussing the EL waves and their structure he
> writes as most Ellioticians do, that is to say,"The
> best way to ANTICIPATE and target the end of wave.X
> is to examine........."
>
> Anticipate......yeah, I remember when I used to do
> that. I most definitely remember the outcomes of
> 99.99% of those anticipations of mine as well.
>
> He says, on page 107,... "that Ellioticians discuss
> tendencies and they are neither permanent or precise.
> In addition, these relationships change over time.
> Just as you begin to count on them and place money on
> your interpretation, they change. WE HAVE SOLVED THAT
> PROBLEM."
>
> Solved? Hummm...and the book is only $65dollars US?
>
> That sentence alone just about had me on the floor. As
> every single trader I've known from 22 to 82 that
> told me or attempted to show me for that matter, that
> they use the Elliot Wave in their intraday trading has
> never exclaimed that within this theory they've found
> a consistent trading solution. They certainly haven't
> been able to prove to me in their realtime trading.
>
> After gobbling up more and more spoonfuls of Level
> Three: "The Competent Trader", I get to page.154,
> where Bill is kind enough to state, "This approach
> works with all times frames, BUT it becomes a bit
> cumbersome with intraday trading.
>
> Cumbersome.....yeah
> hummm...I wonder how much more so?
>
> Now, I'm going to preface the rest of what I'm about
> to say with these words: I realize all too well, that
> one mans pile of junk is another's treasure trove. So,
> I'm not here to *hit all over someone elses parade.
>
> Ok, so, I've been trading NQ Futures going on almost
> two years now. Paper, simulator and realtime trading,
> only intraday, mostly one contract. In the last 3
> months finally have something that bangs out
> consistent daily profits.
>
> I've tried and applied just about every different
> indicator you've heard of, even some you haven't.
> Come up with a few and paid to have it coded only to
> later find out in Technical Analysis from A to Z, that
> some other Bloke, has already been there and done
> that.
>
>
> So, whats my question, what am I looking for, what
> kind of responses am I expecting?
>
> Is there anyone on this list, or anyone that you know
> and have SEEN first hand trade successfully,
> Consistently, INTRADAY on any instrument using the
> Elliot Wave Theory as a foundational cornerstone to
> their methodology?
>
> Has anyone that has read this book, been able to
> convert the written words of Bill Williams into a
> workable intraday trading system, such as what he has
> fully attempted to describe?
>
> If so, I wouldn't mind hearing from you either on this
> list or offline.
>
> Whats in it for you?
>
> I have the system that Bill is describing in his book
> fully coded in Easy Language, a prior version to the
> current however. My friend is in the process of
> converting it and will have it ready to load into 7.x
> in a few weeks.
>
> I'd be willing to fully share my results both the
> backtested and "going forward" results with somone
> that has profitable results from their fractal based
> system.
>
> best wishes for all in 2004.
>
> mike ball
>
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