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> Therefor i think every system will eventualy keep on working. It's
> just that the characteristics (like maxDD etc) might change so much
> that it does not work for you anymore because it's getting to much for
> you. But if the logic is good it might not work for a few years but
> after that work like a "holy grail" again..... It's just... can you
> bare the flat or drawdown periods....
Which can be daunting. I've had systems perform very
consistently for 3-5 years, and then suddenly heel over and die.
Maybe some day they'll wake up again, but in the meantime they're
losing money for 6 months or a year or more. If that was my only
system, I'd be in serious trouble.
Moral: don't put all your eggs in one basket. Even if you have
one supersystem that's better than all your others, and you want
to trade it exclusively, have other systems in reserve ready to
swap in if your star suddenly flops. Better yet, trade them all
at the same time to minimize the damage if one of them takes a
dive. And hope they don't all take a dive at the same time.
Be aware that you'll probably have to suffer through a protracted
drawdown sometime in your trading career. Prepare for it so it
doesn't kill you when it happens. Trust me, drawdowns are a LOT
more painful in realtime than they are when you're looking at the
equity curve in a backtest.
Gary
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