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Gary Fritz wrote:
>
> > Therefor i think every system will eventualy keep on working. It's
> > just that the characteristics (like maxDD etc) might change so much
> > that it does not work for you anymore because it's getting to much for
> > you. But if the logic is good it might not work for a few years but
> > after that work like a "holy grail" again..... It's just... can you
> > bare the flat or drawdown periods....
>
> Which can be daunting. I've had systems perform very
> consistently for 3-5 years, and then suddenly heel over and die.
> Maybe some day they'll wake up again, but in the meantime they're
> losing money for 6 months or a year or more. If that was my only
> system, I'd be in serious trouble.
>
> Moral: don't put all your eggs in one basket. Even if you have
> one supersystem that's better than all your others, and you want
> to trade it exclusively, have other systems in reserve ready to
> swap in if your star suddenly flops. Better yet, trade them all
> at the same time to minimize the damage if one of them takes a
> dive. And hope they don't all take a dive at the same time.
>
I fully agree with Gary, it pays to diversify.
Btw I've noticed that many markets have changed character during the
90s. Those that have, never returned to their previous character
(sofar). This caused some systems to fail and others to start working.
Btw, market manipulation by major players is also very important. E.g.
the natural gas market changed after the demise of Enron. Only in
October, did I learn the reason (hint: do a google search for "enron
manipulate natural gas")
Regards, M
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