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----- Original Message -----
From: "MT" <mtzianos@xxxxxxxxx>
> In any case, I would empirically quantify the fact that any system has
> "stopped working", if it exceeds its previous depth and duration of
> drawdown by a wide margin. If e.g. MaxDD during the last 5-months
> increased to $32k vs $22k for the previous 51months, i'd say it stopped
> working.
This would also mean that every system will stop working at some
moment in time since your worst DD is in front of you and not behind you.
But, i don't think i personaly do agree with you. Because also that
32k DD might be recovered in the next 5 months and the 4 months
after that you maybe make 60k.
Therefor i think every system will eventualy keep on working. It's just
that the characteristics (like maxDD etc) might change so much that it
does not work for you anymore because it's getting to much for you.
But if the logic is good it might not work for a few years but after that
work like a "holy grail" again..... It's just... can you bare the flat or
drawdown periods....
My advice, undertrade. That will help a lot getting through the rough
periods. It will not get you the highest return possible but it might
get you to have a system that works much longer than if you overtrade
because your money management will make how high your next
drawdown will be....
greetings and have a nice weekend
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