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Does Mandelbrot publish an public books? I have only heard of his software
which last time I looked was part black-boxed.
Regards
Robert Holt.
----- Original Message -----
From: "--" <andy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 1:17 PM
Subject: Fw: Chaos theory
> : : >More bullshit. You've made an accusation that he's a plagiarist.
> : : Prove it.
> : :
> : : 1) Self-evident if you understand EWT and Mandelbrot's claim
> :
> : Oh, I understand Elliot Waves and Mandelbrot. I have a confession to
make:
> I
> : was a sucker for Elliot Waves, once.
> :
> : You've claimed that Mandelbrot plagiarized Elliot Waves but have yet to
> : provide the proof. Have you ever considerd that 2 people can look at the
> : same type of market data and arrived at 2 similar, yet different
> : conclusions? Are all attempts at trying to explain the underlying
> : fundamentals of the markets solely the providence of Elliot Waves? Have
> you
> : ever considered that Elliot Waves are nothing more than byproducts /
side
> : effects of a naturally underlying market phenomena and not the Holy
Grail?
> :
> : : 2) Done by Prechter (see attachments)
> :
> : Where's the beef?
> :
> : 3) It was Elliott and Prechter who made
> : : me aware of fractals in financial markets, I traded them years before
> : : Mandelbrot "discovered" them. To claim to have discovered something
> : : which has been practised successfully by millions of traders for half
> : : a century is arrogance beyond belief and requires a detachment from
> : : reality that is stunning, even in the unreal academic world.
> :
> : Have you ever considered that Elliot and Prechter never 'invented' the
> term
> : 'fractal'? It was only after Bill Williams came out with his
'Profitunity'
> : concept and his trading chaos book that Prechter decided to jump on the
> : bandwagon to exploit chaos for financial gains. Look at any of his
earlier
> : works. No where does he mention anything relating to chaos.
> :
> : : Very much doubt that his "perrs" know of Elliott or Prechter. They
> : : are probably stagnating in Efficient Market Hypothesis.
> :
> : Well, if you're gonna jump on a slip of the fingers in typing, here's
one
> : for you:
> :
> : _____
> : __(_ \
> : ___(_____ \
> : (________ |
> : (__ /
> : (_______ /
> :
> :
> : : Apparently you decided that Elliott Waves are not scale
> : : invariant....you may want to educate yourself on EWT before making
> : : further comparisions and asserting Mandelbrot's work is original. I
> : : do see why Mandelbrot's work may seem original to *you*.
> :
> : I know Elliot waves. I know its subjectivity makes it fraught with
danger
> in
> : trading. If you know it, why not create a trading system out of it?
After,
> : the rules are simple, right? 5 waves up and 3 waves down? In the 5 waves
> up,
> : there's 3 impulse waves (usually label 1,3,5 ) and 2 corrections (2 and
> 4)?
> : Wave 2 can't correct more than 100% of Wave 1..else the wave count is
> wrong.
> : If it corrects more than 50%, then Wave 4 can't exceed 50% on its
> : retracement of Wave 3...else the wave count is wrong. If Wave 2 is a
> simple
> : correction, then Wave 4 must be complex/irregular and vice versa...else
> the
> : wave count is wrong. Don't forget that Wave 2 can be a 'running'
> correction
> : and if it is, Wave 3 is the largest wave...else the wave count is wrong.
> : Though Wave 5 can exceed Wave 3 in magnitude but not in duration... if
it
> : does, the wave count is wrong. On the 3 Waves down, Wave a can be
composed
> : of 5 waves. If it is, Wave C is usually 3 waves. And vice versa. And
don't
> : forget the "X" wave...that can screw up a wave count. As well that
> : sometimes, it is not always 5 waves up and 3 waves down but sometimes
can
> be
> : 3 waves up and 5 waves down.
> :
> : If you're gonna throw in some Fibonacci numbers, you might as well as
> throw
> : in some Gann angles and time by degrees. And if you're gonna do that,
why
> : not as well as trying to map the markets by reading tea leaves. Or the
old
> : Norse way of reading bones? That'll certainly work as wel as Elliot
> Waves...
> :
> : : You certainly have the right to be impressed by Mandelbrot.
> :
> : Not at all. You make too many assumptions.
> :
> : : I need
> : : more than reputation, credentials, large number of publications..
> :
> : Well, I need you prove to me that Elliot waves work. An old friend of
mine
> : used to subscribed to Steve Posner's 'Trading witrh Elliot Waves'. In
Feb.
> : of 2000, Posner writes, "So far, Elliot Wave has suggested that the
401(k)
> : investor should be sitting tight in the market right now...as target
> levels
> : of 1873-1949 in the S&P 500 are called for. Elliot Wave Theory analysis
> : suggests that it is too early for a major reversal. Further research
> reveals
> : a strong seasonal tendencies for US equities to rise through the first
> : quarter on the back of tax advantaged account purchases....." Right at
> the
> : top of the markets. Now, my friend is a Jerry Favors/ Gann freak. Who
> knows,
> : perhaps he'll become an astronumbers nutcase in the future (in his quest
> to
> : predict the markets.)?
> :
> : Create a trading system out of it. If it can beat my interpretation of
> : Mandelbrot's mapping function (atatched GIF files), I'll give creadence
to
> : it. Until then, to me, Elliot Waves are nothing more than a side effect/
> by
> : product/ waste product of a naturally occuring market phenomena Elliot/
> : Precther/ Posner don't understand/ comprehend.
> :
>
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