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: >More bullshit. You've made an accusation that he's a plagiarist.
: Prove it.
:
: 1) Self-evident if you understand EWT and Mandelbrot's claim
Oh, I understand Elliot Waves and Mandelbrot. I have a confession to make: I
was a sucker for Elliot Waves, once.
You've claimed that Mandelbrot plagiarized Elliot Waves but have yet to
provide the proof. Have you ever considerd that 2 people can look at the
same type of market data and arrived at 2 similar, yet different
conclusions? Are all attempts at trying to explain the underlying
fundamentals of the markets solely the providence of Elliot Waves? Have you
ever considered that Elliot Waves are nothing more than byproducts / side
effects of a naturally underlying market phenomena and not the Holy Grail?
: 2) Done by Prechter (see attachments)
Where's the beef?
3) It was Elliott and Prechter who made
: me aware of fractals in financial markets, I traded them years before
: Mandelbrot "discovered" them. To claim to have discovered something
: which has been practised successfully by millions of traders for half
: a century is arrogance beyond belief and requires a detachment from
: reality that is stunning, even in the unreal academic world.
Have you ever considered that Elliot and Prechter never 'invented' the term
'fractal'? It was only after Bill Williams came out with his 'Profitunity'
concept and his trading chaos book that Prechter decided to jump on the
bandwagon to exploit chaos for financial gains. Look at any of his earlier
works. No where does he mention anything relating to chaos.
: Very much doubt that his "perrs" know of Elliott or Prechter. They
: are probably stagnating in Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Well, if you're gonna jump on a slip of the fingers in typing, here's one
for you:
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: Apparently you decided that Elliott Waves are not scale
: invariant....you may want to educate yourself on EWT before making
: further comparisions and asserting Mandelbrot's work is original. I
: do see why Mandelbrot's work may seem original to *you*.
I know Elliot waves. I know its subjectivity makes it fraught with danger in
trading. If you know it, why not create a trading system out of it? After,
the rules are simple, right? 5 waves up and 3 waves down? In the 5 waves up,
there's 3 impulse waves (usually label 1,3,5 ) and 2 corrections (2 and 4)?
Wave 2 can't correct more than 100% of Wave 1..else the wave count is wrong.
If it corrects more than 50%, then Wave 4 can't exceed 50% on its
retracement of Wave 3...else the wave count is wrong. If Wave 2 is a simple
correction, then Wave 4 must be complex/irregular and vice versa...else the
wave count is wrong. Don't forget that Wave 2 can be a 'running' correction
and if it is, Wave 3 is the largest wave...else the wave count is wrong.
Though Wave 5 can exceed Wave 3 in magnitude but not in duration... if it
does, the wave count is wrong. On the 3 Waves down, Wave a can be composed
of 5 waves. If it is, Wave C is usually 3 waves. And vice versa. And don't
forget the "X" wave...that can screw up a wave count. As well that
sometimes, it is not always 5 waves up and 3 waves down but sometimes can be
3 waves up and 5 waves down.
If you're gonna throw in some Fibonacci numbers, you might as well as throw
in some Gann angles and time by degrees. And if you're gonna do that, why
not as well as trying to map the markets by reading tea leaves. Or the old
Norse way of reading bones? That'll certainly work as wel as Elliot Waves...
: You certainly have the right to be impressed by Mandelbrot.
Not at all. You make too many assumptions.
: I need
: more than reputation, credentials, large number of publications..
Well, I need you prove to me that Elliot waves work. An old friend of mine
used to subscribed to Steve Posner's 'Trading witrh Elliot Waves'. In Feb.
of 2000, Posner writes, "So far, Elliot Wave has suggested that the 401(k)
investor should be sitting tight in the market right now...as target levels
of 1873-1949 in the S&P 500 are called for. Elliot Wave Theory analysis
suggests that it is too early for a major reversal. Further research reveals
a strong seasonal tendencies for US equities to rise through the first
quarter on the back of tax advantaged account purchases....." Right at the
top of the markets. Now, my friend is a Jerry Favors/ Gann freak. Who knows,
perhaps he'll become an astronumbers nutcase in the future (in his quest to
predict the markets.)?
Create a trading system out of it. If it can beat my interpretation of
Mandelbrot's mapping function (atatched GIF files), I'll give creadence to
it. Until then, to me, Elliot Waves are nothing more than a side effect/ by
product/ waste product of a naturally occuring market phenomena Elliot/
Precther/ Posner don't understand/ comprehend.
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