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Bill:
> Well, it's really (a fibo ;-)) 13 years off, and 400%+ basis the
Dow.
> RP thought it was all done in 1987 near Dow 2740. In fact, I faxed
> Bob charts circa 1987-88 wondering if that crash low was a "two"
> with a "third wave" up yet to come. Obviously Prechter did not
> think so.
You may be a better analyst than Prechter, apparently you called that
right.
> missing the biggest bull market in history was a huge disappointment
even to
> Prechter. Moreover, when the best from the 1980's misses 1000%+ in
the
> NASDAQ in the 1990's it points out the fact that Elliott is
subjective.
If the the fractals on a 30min chart indicate that a sequence is
incomplete and
you have confidence in your ability, you would not let the
expectation of a
larger scale cycle topping keep you out of the market. I know nothing
about
Prechter's trading and don't know what he missed and why he missed
it. And yes,
trading the method has some subjectivity, in that it requires pattern
recognition, which requires judgement.
> When Prechter's newsletter comes out he's not talking where the
market will
> be in 300 years, he's talking where to put your money NOW. Being off
a few
> 100% is a big deal.
I thought "bad calls for the 90's" referred to the identification of
a cycle
top of an economic and cultural cycle spanning centuries where even
an error
rate of 13 years would be insignificant and in fact may validate the
analysis
and analyst. My point was, 13 years of error on a multi-century chart
may
translate into a 5min timing error on a 30min chart. I can live with
that. I
know nothing about Prechter's short term market timing skills, except
that he
won a national trading contest with a return of 400%+ . I decide for
myself
where to put my money NOW.
> I never said it invalidated him, but as Prechter said Elliott
discovered "A"
> secret to
> the Universe, not "THE" secret.
I'm not using EWT to discover secrets, only to make $.
> It may turn out Prechter is right about
> the big picture, but as I write the DJI is still 300%+ above the
1987
> "top," and it's above other "tops" as well. From a traders
perspective
> that's
> a big "limitation."
He was obviously wrong about 1987 being a top in a very long term
cycle. As
you know, the method may not tell you whether a 5th wave will have an
extention
or not, but with all its limitations it has more predictive value
than other
methods which tell you where you have been.....not where you are
going.
BAK
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