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Brigitte:
>You may be a better analyst than Prechter, apparently you called that
>right.
I'd NEVER make that claim, but the point is even the best can be
wrong. In this case, a very smart guy locked on to a (wrong) idea,
and wouldn't let go even in the face of evidence to the contrary (in
particular that the '87 crash related all the way back to the 1932 low: it
was a near perfect 38.2% correction according to CQG's "official"
low tick on the Dow). Ironically, Prechter was paddling against a rip tide
in the 90's. When he was with the flow in the 80's, he could do no wrong.
>I'm not using EWT to discover secrets, only to make $.
You were touting Prechter too. My guess is his newsletter calls lost
money since 1987. Nonetheless, I'm a STILL a fan: you're singing to the
choir. My posts (tainted with bits of truth) defended RP and Elliott
and recommended people read them.
BW
>From: brigitte@xxxxxxxxxxxx
>To: Bill Wynne <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>CC: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re: chaos theory
>Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2001 18:27:48 -0400
>
>
>Bill:
>
> > Well, it's really (a fibo ;-)) 13 years off, and 400%+ basis the Dow.
> > RP thought it was all done in 1987 near Dow 2740. In fact, I faxed
> > Bob charts circa 1987-88 wondering if that crash low was a "two"
> > with a "third wave" up yet to come. Obviously Prechter did not
> > think so.
>
>You may be a better analyst than Prechter, apparently you called that
>right.
>
> > missing the biggest bull market in history was a huge disappointment
>even to
> > Prechter. Moreover, when the best from the 1980's misses 1000%+ in the
> > NASDAQ in the 1990's it points out the fact that Elliott is subjective.
>
>If the the fractals on a 30min chart indicate that a sequence is incomplete
>and
>you have confidence in your ability, you would not let the expectation of
>a
>larger scale cycle topping keep you out of the market. I know nothing
>about
>Prechter's trading and don't know what he missed and why he missed it. And
>yes,
>trading the method has some subjectivity, in that it requires pattern
>recognition, which requires judgment.
>
>
> > When Prechter's newsletter comes out he's not talking where the market
>will
> > be in 300 years, he's talking where to put your money NOW. Being off a
>few
> > 100% is a big deal.
>
>I thought "bad calls for the 90's" referred to the identification of a
>cycle
>top of an economic and cultural cycle spanning centuries where even an
>error
>rate of 13 years would be insignificant and in fact may validate the
>analysis
>and analyst. My point was, 13 years of error on a multi-century chart may
>translate into a 5min timing error on a 30min chart. I can live with that.
>I
>know nothing about Prechter's short term market timing skills, except that
>he
>won a national trading contest with a return of 400%+ . I decide for myself
>where to put my money NOW.
>
> > I never said it invalidated him, but as Prechter said Elliott discovered
>"A"
> > secret to
> > the Universe, not "THE" secret.
>
>I'm not using EWT to discover secrets, only to make $.
>
> > It may turn out Prechter is right about
> > the big picture, but as I write the DJI is still 300%+ above the 1987
> > "top," and it's above other "tops" as well. From a traders perspective
> > that's
> > a big "limitation."
>
> He was obviously wrong about 1987 being a top in a very long term cycle.
> As
>you know, the method may not tell you whether a 5th wave will have an
>extention
>or not, but with all its limitations it has more predictive value than
>other
>methods which tell you where you have been.....not where you are going.
>
>
>BAK
>
>
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