[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: omega-digest Digest V101 #206



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

In a message dated 6/26/2001 2:20:18 PM Central Daylight Time, 
omega-digest-request@xxxxxxxxxx writes:

<< AscTrend results - looks great >>

Your referring to what's commonly called post-dictive errors. These are 
something you need to be extremely careful about. They can slip into testing 
very easily without noticing it, particularly on more advanced systems. Your 
basically saying "if the market explodes to the upside by the end of today 
then buy on this mornings open" etc etc.. Obviously this is impossible, but 
you'd be surprised how often this error occurs in its many different 
variations. Another one is "if indicator = x then buy on open." The problem 
is that you did not know that indicator = x until AFTER then open.

deanh@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx