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I've responded to this type of faulty "argument" before, so
I'll be brief.
I use to recommend that traders gain as
much as possible from Nassim Taleb's website, especially
reading his free online book, FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS. I see
the book is no longer online; perhaps because it will be on
sale shortly. (home site:
http://home.netcom.com/~ntaleb/ )
One of his chapters: "It Is Easier to Buy and Sell Than Fry
an Egg (Data Mining and the Survivorship Bias) " is
an important concept to grasp.
You mention FUTURES MAGAZINE review of several top systems,
with impressive results, that sell for reasonable prices.
There may be some value in one or more of the systems.
But remember these few systems are the result of at least
tens of thousands of failed systems.
If I produced a list of 10 people who each won over $5
million in various state lotteries over the past 12 months,
and each were willing to advise you on which numbers to pick
for your next lottery purchase, would you hire them? Even
if their fee were a nominal amount?
I'm not equating a random lottery with trading the markets;
I have far too much respect for the markets. But the top 10
systems in FUTURES may have no greater claim to fame than
the above lottery winners.
Regards,
----- Original Message -----
From: "Thomas Alexander" <alexander_enterprises@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, June 09, 2001 8:50 AM
Subject: Futures Magazine Review of Systems
> Good morning successful, stalwart, generous and brilliant
> traders!
>
> This month's Futures magazine had a review of several top
> systems which had rather impressive returns. The amazing
> thing was their cost! Even at minimum wage, I've easily
> spent many times that amount in my own efforts of system
> development. It was a real eye opener (Read: "Slap in the
> face" here).
>
> Does anyone have experience using any of those systems or
> comments about purchasing them? What I'm trying to gauge
> here is my arrogance around, "I'll write my own winner"
> versus "I'm just here to make money."
>
> Thanks!
>
>
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