|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi John,
While I was a bit offended at your Tony Robbins comment, I couldn't agree
more with your last paragraph.
And BTW, I am hardly part of the "Tony Robbins horsesh-t" as you so
eloquently put it. But to dismiss this mental aspect of performing anything
successfully is a highly questionable argument.
Bobh
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Hamon" <jhamon@xxxxxxxx>
To: "Omega_List" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 29, 2001 8:43 AM
Subject: trading systems
> i read this list to keep current with tradestation, the trading platform i
> love to hate. but when it veers off into "philosophy" about trading
systems
> i always find myself amazed at what passes for thought and enlightenment.
i
> write this to the list for no other purpose than to help somebody else who
> might perhaps be able to hear it and benefit. i have been through all of
> this myself, i have heard and done it all too, so understand i am trying
to
> help. and i don't want $5,000 or even $300 to do so...
>
> some silly person wrote the other day that even discretionary traders use
> systems and the difference between discretionary trading and systems
trading
> is just a matter of the complexity of the decision tree. how could you
not
> say this without realizing what you are saying? it's like comparing a
> traffic light and traffic cop. the traffic light (a trading system) can
> have some internal logic and use sensors to determine whether there is
> excess traffic on one side of the signal, but it cannot take the place of
a
> traffic cop (discretion). when the big game is at the stadium (an
> exceptional situation), they turn off the traffic lights around the
stadium
> and bring in the cops. it's obvious why, so i'll simply complete the
> analogy. systems fail under exceptional conditions (and lots of others).
> and when they do, they fail spectacularly. i read all this nonesense
about
> how successful traders use systems. if you cling to the belief that
richard
> dennis is a successful trader, then you don't understand the old adage
that
> "even turkeys fly in a hurricane." richard dennis made his nut in the
last
> commodities inflation cycle. how's he done since then?
>
> more recently, how about all the "dippies" who bought the dips of CSCO all
> the way down to 15? for ten years buying the dips made you look like a
> genius. now, with a greater than 80% haircut, if you've been buying the
> dips you've been getting margin calls. i talked to a man last night whose
> professional financial advisor put his retirement into professionally-run
> mutual funds that have returned him -55% in the last 12 months. these are
> professionals?
>
> then i read this "philosophy" about self-confidence and belief and all the
> rest of the tony robbins horseshit. this is an off-shoot of the
self-esteem
> movement, whose results include american high schoolers who feel good
about
> their math abilities and have among the lowest test scores in the
developed
> world. no amount of self-esteem will replace knowledge and understanding
of
> the markets.
>
> this is true: markets do exhibit quantifiable pricetime signatures that
> reflect where they are in their growth curves. as i wrote once before
> recently, the game is about knowing what time it is. is it the beginning,
> continuation or end of the trend? or is "no trend" time (random walk)?
> what is the pricetime magnitude of the trend? to learn this, however, you
> will have to discard larry williams, tom demark, jake bernstein and all
the
> rest of them. and start thinking. for starters think about whether i am
> right or not: are there any circumstances under which these guys would be
> selling books, videos and hotlines if they knew what time it was in the
> market? why would you: a) go through the enormous hassles they do when
you
> could be completely self-directed every day of your life? these guys sell
> the dream, but they don't live it; b) sell the information you use to make
> money for a few hundreds of dollars? answer: they don't have anything!
>
> a good example is this larry williams "trading pattern" that was discussed
> the other day. what larry williams calls a trading pattern might, at
best,
> be considered an entry trigger, if you already knew that you wanted to be
> long the market. the fact that he stops it out on the first profitable
open
> demonstrates why he is, after all these years, an unsuccessful trader: he
> won't let the trade work.
>
> here it is in a nutshell: if you believe that optimized neuro-fuzzy
networks
> of ADX, RSI and stochastics are going to lead you to the promised land,
then
> you'll continue to give your money to me. throw out all the derivative
> indicators and spend a couple of years looking at price, time and volume
(OI
> in futures). look at great stuff and look what it did to start, continue
> and end trends. you'll be on the right track.
>
> jh
>
|