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In a message dated 11/4/2000 9:26:29 PM Pacific Standard Time,
rcavaler@optonline.net writes:
<< - It's profitability ratio over a variety of different equities is
consistently greater than 65% (i.e. 65% of the time, you are in the
green)
- It performs well in both trending markets, *and* range-bound markets.
(perhaps using adaptive properties based market conditions of a given
stock)
- It does not require constant re-tuning or optimization to achieve
satisfactory results (this would just be curve backfiting) >>
I think this is pretty much unrealistic. You either want to go for a
"trending" system, a "buy-low sell-high" system (which is hard) or a
"volitility breakout" system. Volitility Breakout Systems will give you your
60 to 80 percent winning trades but with only a 1 to 1 win/loss ratio. The
trending system will give you 30 to 50 precent winning trades, but with a 2
to 4 win/loss ratio. That's pretty much what I've come to expect, and, as
far as I'm concerned, that is the Holy Grail, because if it's a good version
of those concepts, it will be robust and therefore it will make money for
you. Losses are the cost of doing business. I will gladly lose $100 to make
$250 50 % of the time any day.
Just my humble opinon.
Jim
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