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Re: What is the future of TS?



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At 9:04 PM -0400 10/12/00, Tom Chapa wrote:

>Since this is the omega list, I think it is not inappropriate at this time
>to ask the users of this list what they think the future of TS is going to
>be?

I think it is pretty clear what they think the future of TS is going
to be. Omega has told us. From some PR material dated April 20, 2000:

 "The company plans to discontinue all marketing of its client software
  products next month in preparation for the anticipated launch of
  TradeStation.com."

Their recent 10Q report refers to the old products as "legacy client
software".

Their web site http://www.tradestation.com has only a sexy demo of
TradeStation Pro that says "Coming Soon". With Omega's record of
delivering a usable product on schedule, one wonders how soon
"Coming Soon" really will be.

Meanwhile, the merger with Online Trading has been delayed by the SEC:

 "WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Onlinetradinginc.com Corp.'s (LINE) pending
  merger with Omega Research Inc. (OMGA) has been delayed because of the
  Securities and Exchange Commission's review of a Form S-4 filed in
  connection with the merger.

  Onlinetradinginc.com said in its quarterly report filed Wednesday with
  the SEC that the federal agency has advised Omega Research that it
  disagrees with the timing of when Omega Research recognizes licensing
  fee revenue from the sales of its legacy client software."

Their recent 10Q report shows them burning cash at a rapid rate, now
that they have stopped selling the old products:

 "As of June 30, 2000, the Company had cash and cash equivalents of
  approximately $4.0 million, with working capital of approximately
  $15.1 million.

  Cash provided by operating activities during the six months ended
  June 30, 2000 totaled approximately $333,000, compared to cash used
  in operating activities of approximately $839,000 in the comparable
  period of 1999. The increase in net cash provided by operations in
  2000 was primarily due to decreases in accounts receivable and
  increases in accounts payable and accrued expenses offset by net
  losses and increases in income tax assets during the six months
  ended June 30, 2000."

The company has been planning on income tax refunds as a result of
net operating loss carryforwards:

 "The Company recorded a benefit for income taxes of $4.3 million for
  the six months ended June 30, 2000 as compared to a provision for
  income taxes of $1.7 million for the comparable period of 1999,
  computed using the effective annual income tax rate."

One wonders how the tax refunds might be affected by the SEC review
of revenue recognition.

The stock closed yesterday at a bit over $2 a share, a 21 month low.

The following was posted on a Yahoo message board on 10/2/00:

 "While we're disappointed that this merger has taken an unexpectedly long
  time to clear SEC approvals, the management of both companies remain
  committed to the merger and are very positive on our prospects once the
  merger is closed. Our last update on timing was in our 10Q where we stated
  it was expected to close by the end of September.

  We continue to anticipate that once our S4 is declared "effective" by the
  SEC -- and the delays in this process are related to getting this final
  approval from them -- the actual merging is expected to close ~20 days
  later. We expect to announce promptly after the S4 is effective when the
  actual merger will close.

  Considering the many delays we've had thus far, we are hesitant to set any
  new expectations until we have more information from the SEC. But given the
  20 days it will take to go from being effective to closing, we won't be
  closing this month.

  On a positive note, the delay in merging hasn't impacted the two companies
  working closely together toward the business model and supporting products
  and technologies (including TradeStation) that we expect to implement
  post-merger. If I can be of any further assistance, please feel free to
  call.

  -SMD
  Sean M. Davis
  VP, Investor & Media Relations
  Omega Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: OMGA)
  305-485-7005
 
The situation seems reminiscent of the "Osborne Effect" now taught in
most business schools. This refers to the time when Osborne Computer
announced it's new product far before they could ship it and when
customers stopped buying the old product, they went broke.

And one wonders why any company would want to switch from a business
model where they have a virtual monopoly to one where they have
thousands of well financed competitors. It should be interesting to
see how it develops.

Needless to say, we all hope that it all works out well and that we
will have a great new trading platform. But I suspect that there are
a lot of short fingernails in Miami nowadays...

Bob Fulks