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Hello Mark,
Thanks to everyone for their elaborate comments.
>what gets me in this business is that people
have hard time from
>separating a good feeling that they have personally
for someone with
>how their stuff performs. many people like larry
williams and i'm
>sure he a charismatic type guy so what does the
stuff work and hold up?
>tom demark is an impressionable guy and george
lane and on and on
>name a million of them here.
I guess personal "charm" plays a significant part to
success, in most aspects of life. Maybe traders are
lucky that the markets are indifferent in that aspect
and remain an area where success depends more on
actual merit.
Gallacher ("Winner take all") wrote a chapter about
high-profile promoters which I found illuminating.
Does anyone have suggestions about people with solid
ideas ? How about Ehlers, Jurik, Kase, Ryan Jones,
Spear, Stendahl, Raschke, Brower, Ruggiero, Freeburg,
Clayburg, DiNapoli, Cook, Tharp, Saidenberg,
Gramalegui, Krutsinger, Mermer etc to name a few ?
>this is a black and white numbers game - either it
works or it doesn't.
>i have many systems that i feel are very tradable
and will hold up
>over the long term - what usually blows up is the
traders willingness
>to stick with it. that willingness is directly
correlated with how
>thorough a trader understands what it is they are
doing and how they
>are employing that system/ method ect. it takes
years and years of
>hard work to even understand yourself and many
never get it. in fact
I have been looking at the performance results of
various CTAs, e.g. Trendstat Inc (Tom Basso, "Mr
Serenity" according to Schwager - to whom he turned
over his fund business - and who is also presented as
a trader's role model in Van Tharp's book TYWIFF) at
http://www.traderscan.com/cgi-shl/dbml.exe?action=query&template=/trs/view/advisor.dbm&Psw=&User_ID=3
which were less than spectacular. Having gone over
those data, I am somewhat concerned about an
individual trader's chance of success and many
vendors' claims of exorbitant returns.
>we can discuss all the models you want name some..
The models I would like to look at include
1) a longer-term trend-following (e.g. StdDev
BreakOut) system, on several commodities markets, with
emphasis on position sizing (e.g. volatility-adjusted
risk) with various filters (e.g. trendiness indic,
congestion etc) to allow/disallow the entry.
2) a shorter-term (1-10 days) Volatily Expansion
system
Regards, Alex.
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