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One cannot know the likelihood of such "outliers". There are two reasons why the likelihood can't be quantified: first, because you will never have enough occurrences to make statistically valid assumptions about them; and second, because having such data would only confirm that they are random. (Yes, in many cases price shocks are "noise".)
You *must* account for these occurences in your trading system/method (by using some sort of protection to limit losses in the case of such an occurrence, for example) or you *will* eventually blow up.
The Omega Man
---- you wrote:
> Hi,
>
> Quick question: On 25 April 2000 at 12:27 there's a huge (100+ points)
> spike in the June 2000 DAX Future. It's valid all right - there are over
> 40 trades that minute. Anyone remember what happened ? Interest rate
> decision ? Something else ?
>
> (Going over old charts with new ideas at the moment and trying to get a
> feel for the likelihood of such outliers, hence the question.)
>
> Regards,
>
> Stefan Schulz
> Suaviter Limited
> programming@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
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