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: Secondly, I fiddled with your Outlier system last night on a lark. I had
a
: cattle chart open so I put the system on it. With just a bit of
: optimization it had a 100% win rate on one time frame. I applied it
another
: timeframe and got 86% hits. That was daily data spanning 2.5 years in
: total. Of course that's not enough testing to trade it but very
promising.
: Today I'll try it on intra day data as you have.
I'm actually suprised that the system works, as written. Usually, tools
(indicators) rarely make great systmes, much less one that works. I think
this may work best on something with a breakout charateristics (constant
range, followed by a mssive range expansion). I used it in conjuction with
my smoothed stochastic on a 5 min or less S&P chart.
On side note, if you're optimizing a system, IMO I've found that the best
parameter to optimize for is the profit factor. I don't know why, but its
intuitively the best parameter to optimize for. It takes into account the
gross loss as well as profits....which indirectly affects the percentage of
winning trades, drawdown and return on account...I think.
100% win rate is a bit unrealistic. 100% win rate with 100 trades or more on
daily data encompassing 2.5 years would be awesome. But if it's just 10
trades (and here I'm guessing) over 2.5 years...that's a bit unrealistic.
just my opinion.
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