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Hello Prosper,
P> This kind of discussion is one of those classics that I have learned to
P> enjoy. Should you have an opinion or not have an opinion. What I think that
P> most traders mean is that you should not have an opinion that doesn't
P> change. Trading what you see is having a very short term opinion. System
P> traders have their opinion programed into their system so that doesn't count
P> as having NO opinion.
friday morning i came in a little late and noticed i had a system kick
out a sell at 1388 on the sp. i thought to myself man its awful early
for a trade i'm just not ready for this - this morning. then i though
i have this system posted somewhere in the public eye on a web site as
a demonstration of a purely mechanical system - as a rebuttal to some
discretionary traders (or trainers) comments. so i took the trade and
then watched it continually look weak going into the lunch hour.
i flipped over to check the bonds which had been quite all day. what i
saw told me that the sp was headed for a big move. did i have this
programmed? no. i went back to the sp's and added on more contracts, i
had been waiting for a couple of days for this move. other tell tale
signs were the prem and just the general tight price action of the sp
range itself. i had seen this move often over the years and what
better day to do it than option expiration. there are some other
reasons for this move happen this day related to options as well.
BUT! when it was all said and done it was a good ole mechanical system
that got me in the trade and kept me there. it was my experience that
prompted me to add on. i will take the system over the experience
anytime. its my master and i do what it tells me - in effect it is me
without emotions and tardiness.
P> If you really have NO opinion then you have to place your orders purely at
P> random with the flip of a coin or with a random trade generator. I suppose
P> that trading at random has been tested using statistical stops and all. It
P> probably doesn't work well. Trade with the trend or against it. It's an
P> apple or oranges type of issue.
why trade with it or against it ? why not trade both sides? make the
stops - stops and reversals! this is an area of little study and one
that traders would do well to analyze in a great degree of detail.
P> Prosper
mark brown
P> *************************************************************
>> I am just glad that I was able to toss my OPINION aside and trade what I
>> saw. There was a time where that was not the case.
ps problem is that what you see is too late! you nor i can trade what
we see it will eat you alive!
--
Best regards,
Mark Brown mailto:markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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