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From: Prosper <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> This kind of discussion is one of those classics that I have learned to
> enjoy. Should you have an opinion or not have an opinion. What I think
that
> most traders mean is that you should not have an opinion that doesn't
> change. Trading what you see is having a very short term opinion. System
> traders have their opinion programed into their system so that doesn't
count
> as having NO opinion.
>
> If you really have NO opinion then you have to place your orders purely at
> random with the flip of a coin or with a random trade generator. I suppose
> that trading at random has been tested using statistical stops and all. It
> probably doesn't work well. Trade with the trend or against it. It's an
> apple or oranges type of issue.
>
just to add something about flipping a coin.
if one is to study sp future intraday bars 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, etc.,
one of the interesting feature is that it hits dead on 50/50 based
on either close to close from one bar to next , or open to close of each
bar.
I did made a model out of it and still having someone trading it
based on the flip of a coin (that is, one can always short and another
using the same rules always long at the same time with the same entry)
with some statistical stops and rules on profit taking plus SAR - a point
you know the assumption of coin flip is dead wrong and doing just the
opposite will recoup some losses.
If all one wants is some 100 pts per contract return on top
of the t-bill interest ... notice - 100 pts per contract per yr is pretty
bad
return as it is about 1/2 pt or less return per day ... and the daily range
of
sp is about 20 pts now ...
Maybe giving out too much this time ... what the heck, Toronto Stock
Exchange is damn slow today except those junior mining stocks ...
typing mesg is better than watching it :)
-Lawrence Chan
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