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----- Original Message -----
From: M. Simms <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <MarketMayvin@xxxxxxx>; <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2000 1:43 PM
Subject: RE: Pattern Trader - Performance of 90+ %
> I wonder if Phil might help "legitimize" his systems validity by:
>
> 1) indicating how long they took to develop and test
>
Well... I've been focusing and refining this stuff for at least 6-8 years.
Started off slowly. Ramped up the effory considerably when I got TS. Spent
1000s of hours trying everything in the book. Tried all the traditional
indicators and systems - couldn't come up with anything solid. Developed
carpal tunnel syndrome that won' t go away.
But eventually I got on to a couple things that worked. This was a few years
back. I'd recommend "how to make money in stocks" by William O'Neal. The
chapter on how to read the market is very significant. Something commodites
traders would not normally get into.
Found another thing that worked one day just by thinking about statistics.
Just hit me out of the blue. Was thinking about "How frequently does (fill
in the blank) occur, and when it does what are the odds of (fill in the
blank) happening".
> 2) how much coding was involved; were external DLLs required ?, etc.
>
The current entry rules are suprisingly simple. Exits are a bit more
tricky - has to be done in such a way as to minimize "loopholes" i.e.
missing a target by a hair and having the trade turn into a loser. Or
anything else that might not have shown up in a backtest. I learned this the
hard way, running earlier (proto) versions of the systems.
> 3) methodology - pattern rec, trend following, scalping extremes
> (countertrend), statistical,
> or maybe a combination ??
>
pattern rec (not the high powered math stuff, just simple ohlcv stuff,
counters, time windows, etc) for entries, statistical profile stuff for
exits. Intermediate-term moves on daily charts.
> 4) self adjusting ? neural net, etc.
>
no -
So I've got the stuff to a workable level by now, but certainly am not
FINISHED! After all this time I have only three things that work well enough
to make a system out of. Also note that past performance, simulated
performance in particular, is no guarantee of future results!!!!!!! And
because of this fact I still have my doubts every time I take a trade.
regards,
Phil
http://www.patterntrader.com
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