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an easy way to dispense with the "system" semantics is to add a
qualifer such as "mechanical" system, ie, a system that is traded
entirely without discretion. do they exist? you bet they do!!! i know
of a handful of people on this list that trade em via broker, even day
trade systems!!! no discretion, no mess, no fuss.
now about discretion....i use systems and indicators to automate about
90% of my trading, but allow up to 100% of my judgment to say yeah or
nay on the signals. like i've said on this list before, i'm a
systematic discretionary trader. there's a lot of input used in my
trading that can't ever be programmed or automated......i-net chat
sentiment, los squawk, ie, a bunch of stuff that's intangible.
now about price shocks and trading events....check out ben warwick's
book, and that's all i'm going to say about that except that price
shocks can be predicted and traded and people are doing it.
now about historical data and system testing....find the cleanest data
available and test your ideas on long price histories. then test it on
dirty rt data; rain fade, power failures, and sunspots all included.
then throw in some fed craziness and 87 style crashes. now ya might
have a realistic idea of how your system or idea performed
historically.
good night and don't let the bear bugs bite :))
TJ
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