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One person's Trend is another's countertrend trade. It all
depends on time frame and perspective as to what defines a
"larger trend". There aren't any hard and fast rules here.
<<correct but my justification is that the markets chop more
than trend, so it would be out of character to say that the
screen shots are typical. unlike most people who try and
show only the best side of their system I showed you the
ugly side of the thing to illustrate a point.>>
I was talking to a floor trader on the CME who said he was
getting chopped up that particular day. It was slowly
trending down, then would have quick 2-3 pt up moves and
then resume down. He was getting caught shorting late, and
then rushing to cover because he said, (paraphrasing) "You
never know when it's going to keep going, and the current
reaction is going to be a 6 pt reaction, instead of 2-3
pts." In the S&P at least, often the exception is the rule,
and a trader can profit by making these against the trend
trades, that somehow suddenly blossom into trend trades. I
can see how MB's system would do well most of the time in
this type of environment.
<<I can tell you what the exact trending and chopping range
is for every market in the world and what your odds would be
trading either method.>>
Ok Mark, I'll bite. What are the above mentioned odds for
the S&P?
Patrick White
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