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YES the expectancy is .400 ,I goofed, looked at the wrong page of my notes
sorry and thanks for the correction
good weekend all
errare humanum est- it is human to err.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: William Vedder, Jr [SMTP:bved01@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: den 16 april 1999 03:53
> To: Olof.Paulson@xxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: ramalisch@xxxxxxxx; lwright@xxxxxxxxxx; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Ralph Vince marble game?
>
> Olof.Paulson@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
> >
> > i ran a modified version in a lecture yesterday
> > 25 marbles
> > 14 clear paying 1 to 1
> > 1 red paying 10 to 1
> > 9 black losing 1 to 1
> > 1 silver losing 5 to 1
> >
> > the system is a 60% system with an expectancy of 0.375
>
> I see the 60% system but isn't the expectancy 0.400?
>
> 14/25 * 1 = 0.56 * 1 = 0.56
> 1/25 * 10 = 0.04 * 10 = 0.40
> 9/25 * (-1) = 0.36 * (-1) = -0.36
> 1/25 * (-5) = 0.04 * (-5) = -0.20
>
> 0.56 + 0.40 - 0.36 - 0.20 = 0.40
>
> What am I missing?
>
> Regards,
>
> Bill Vedder
>
>
> >
> > good luck
> >
> > Olof
> >
>
> <SNIP>
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