Re: Ralph Vince marble game?

["William Vedder, Jr" <bved01@xxxxxxx>]

Olof.Paulson@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
> 
> i ran a modified version in a lecture yesterday
> 25 marbles
> 14 clear paying 1 to 1
> 1 red paying 10 to 1
> 9 black losing  1 to 1
> 1 silver losing 5 to 1
> 
>  the system is a 60% system with an expectancy of 0.375

I see the 60% system but isn't the expectancy 0.400?

14/25 * 1 = 0.56 * 1 = 0.56
1/25  * 10 = 0.04 * 10 = 0.40
9/25 * (-1) = 0.36 * (-1) = -0.36
1/25 * (-5) = 0.04 * (-5) = -0.20

0.56 + 0.40 - 0.36 - 0.20 = 0.40

What am I missing?

Regards,

Bill Vedder  


> 
> good luck
> 
> Olof
> 

<SNIP>