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Allan:
First, these posts weren't 'aimed' at you, but rather where the thread was
going. That being said, here we go.
Sure you've seen them...go meet very successful traders that know how to use
their 'multiple' tools.
There's nothing wrong with wanting automatic this or that, or building computer
tools to do things for you. But don't just automatically spout this 'automated
computerized' tools can do this and that better, smarter and faster. Maybe it
does it better than you can do it. But that's just you. There are plenty of
traders in this world that trade successfully using complex tools--and they do
quite well, thank you.
Oh, and how about this? The elaborate models built by hedge funds like LTC
didn't hold together so well when the market was no longer 'predictable,' did
they? Sometimes, it is difficult to program in experience in the so-called
'smart tools' you refer to.
Look, I'm not begrudging you your quest for these tools. Sure, there are many
tools out there that can be improved upon, and looking at the market in a unique
way, you can find interesting tools--out of the ordinary tools. But all this
hype and energy is leaving behind it a pile of words that seem to suggest to the
everyday trader that if he or she is to be able to make money trading, he or she
HAS to go find these 'smarter tools' that rely on automation and intricate
designs. That just isn't so. There are many ways to trade a market. Only one
relies on your methods-Your way [same with my method--I rely on it].
It wasn't too long ago that a plane crashed in a mountainous region [Korea, it
might have been]. Seems the really 'smart' radar and GPS system they were using
in the cockpit didn't 'know' where the ground was and it was off by 500 feet.
Not everything has to be rocket science. I don't arb 500 stocks in a basket for
gains of tens of thousands of a point. I trade. No computing time needed...just
experience [unless you wish to count that gray matter between my ears as a
sophisticated computer].
Let's tell it like it is: You can make money using simple methods and tools. And
you can make money using extremely intricate and complex tools. I can't speak
for you, but I've run a very large trading department that had more quants than
I could shake a stick at. The large money was made by a few senior traders that
made directional calls--the quants made some very good money setting up cash
cows in arb markets--they were also extremely useful helping us 'structure'
better directional trades, once we showed them the starting place and ending
place.
Best,
Tim Morge
Allan Kaminsky wrote:
>
> At 02:44 PM 10/19/98 -0500, Timothy Morge wrote:
> <snip>
> >I'm not sure I see the point. Following any method blindly is usually going to
> >lead to ruin. Unless you are prepared, you won't be able to use a tool to your
> >advantage.
> >
>
> Tim:
>
> The point is to make an intelligent tool that provides a superior result.
>
> An experienced craftsman can probably make a hand-crafted engine block for
> a high performance vehicle. A numerically controlled fabrication facility
> can probably do it better, faster, and not have to account for bad days,
> days when it wasn't in the mood or wanted to sleep late, etc.
>
> Carefully designed intelligent devices can control trains more safely and
> comfortably than can human controllers. Very sophisticated flight platforms
> can't be flown by seat-of-the-pants old-time aviators; they're flown by
> computer with human input.
>
> So too with indicators. Intelligent indicators can keep track of many more
> inputs in real-time than can humans, can do so without emotion, and can do
> so with consistency. Tough design task? Absolutely! Haven't seen any?
> Doesn't mean they don't exist.
>
> Allan
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