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Allan Kaminsky wrote:
> I've stated before and will restate now that I have no doubt that there are
> extremely successful discretionary traders. You may be one of them. All of
> the successful discretionary traders that I know admit that when they use
> indicators, they discriminate as to when the indicator is valid and when it
> is not.
>
> When I disparage "Gambler Indicators," it is precisely because they are
> losing indicators when followed blindly. Successful traders are providing
> the missing ingredients, and usually aren't aware of exactly how they're
> doing that. My thesis is that indicators DO work, but they're smarter, more
> sophisticated indicators that are able to assimilate more information and
> discriminate in the manner of successful discretionary traders.
Allan:
Let me try to say it again: Indicators are tools. If a tool is used correctly,
it works. If it is used blindly, it seldom works. For example, I am a have
always lived in a house. My parents provided me with food when I was growing up;
now that I have reached a certain age, I provide food for myself. If you dropped
me into a rain forest, I would have great difficulty finding food that would
satisfy my hunger. And if I was lucky enough to hide and watch a native that
lives in that jungle, I might see them use long spears to throw at birds as they
fly overhead--and I would be amazed to see that these hunters were able to hit
the birds and the birds would flutter to the ground and then taken away as food.
So I spend a long, hungry day carefully constructing a long spear. I then spend
the next day throwing the spear into the air at birds as they flit by. I even
manage to graze one or two birds, but alas, at the end of the second day, I have
captured no birds.
As I lay dying on the ground, I hear a group of local hunters out with their
spears again. In a fit if extra-human intelligence, I am finally able to make
out what they are talking about, as I lapse into a coma: 'Don't forget to put
the poison on your spear! Without that posion, you'd just be throwing a spear
into the air all day, like that stupid man we saw earlier.'
Is the spear a useless tool in my hands? It is indeed. It is a useful tool in
the hands of someone that knows how to use it? Yes. What have we learned? Choose
the right tool for the job and learn how to use all the tools in your toolkit?
I'm not sure I see the point. Following any method blindly is usually going to
lead to ruin. Unless you are prepared, you won't be able to use a tool to your
advantage.
Best,
Tim Morge
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