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Ron,
There's a big problem with the Transports right now. That problem is going to take some time to resolve.
Basically, the key levels are not yet in place for a trend reversal in either the Industrials or the Transports. We need to be looking for a clear up - down(to a higher low) - up (to a higher high) pattern on the WEEKLY charts in both indicies to reverse the Dow Theory sell signal. Such a pattern generally takes 3 months or more, in itself, to form. We are a good ways out yet. I'll keep you posted on what I see when the time comes...
Good trading,
The Omega Man
---- you wrote:
>
> Hi Joe,
>
> Just wondered if you'd be willing to comment on how the DOW theorists see
> the current rally?
>
> Jerry Favors was looking for a particular Close at the end of Sept. which
> would define a Quarterly signal that --if below a certain number-- would
> essentially be a reversal of a Buy Signal that was flashed by DOW theory 16
> years ago.
>
> Do you know the numbers for the DOW Theory confirmations for an official
> bear market scenario on a Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, basis?
>
> Thanks in advance for any information.
>
> Ron...
> __________________________________
> At 03:03 AM 9/2/98 -0400, you wrote:
> >
> >These publications have both been bullish since a buy signal was issued
> >under the Dow Theory in late '94. The Dow Theory works just fine... in
> >today's markets and those of yesteryear.
> >
> >
> >All the best,
> >
> >The Omega Man
> >
> >
> >Omega - Love it or Leave it.
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Ron Augustine <RonAug@xxxxxxxx>
> >To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Date: Tuesday, September 01, 1998 3:26 PM
> >Subject: Re: Dow Theory model
> >
> >
> >Even a broken clock is accurate twice each day :)
> >____________________________________
> >At 07:17 AM 9/1/98 -0400, you wrote:
> >>
> >>Don't know which Dow Theory you're referring to... the Dow theory of
> >>Charles Dow works just fine.
> >>
> >>See the 8/3/98 issue of "Dow Theory Forecasts" by Charles Carlson and crew
> >>or the 7/29/98 issue of "Dow Theory Letters" by Richard Russell. Both of
> >>these pubs said that a close in the Industrials below 8627 would be a sell
> >>signal. Such move occurred on 8/4.
> >>
> >>
> >>-----Original Message-----
> >>Date: Tuesday, September 01, 1998 4:25 AM
> >>Subject: Re: Dow Theory model
> >>
> >>
> >>Dow Theory had some validity many years ago when the markets were primarily
> >>traded by a few elite types who had the inside scoop and information
> >>traveled very slowly. But that was long before the days of Mutual Funds,
> >>Retirement Funds, Index Funds, Hedge Funds and 9000 Funds chasing 2000
> >>Stocks... Long before the days of astronomical PE ratios, and Internet
> >>Trading and Mom, Pop and the Kids firing off Buys & Sells on a whim or a
> >>Whisper Number... Long before the days of Stock Index Futures, Earnings
> >>Surprises, and Computerized Program Trading...
> >>
> >>Using Dow Theory today to predict anything about the Market is a bit like
> >>attempting to use a 1920 Model-T mechanic's manual to diagnose a problem
> >>with your 1999 Corvette...
> >>______________________________________
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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